Arnold Kling  

The Budget Debate, VIII

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Economics of Hydrogen... Comment of the Week, 2003-04-0...

Be careful what you wish for. Some supply-siders have asked for "dynamic scoring" of tax cuts, to take into account supply-side effects. The Congressional Budget Office has done this analysis.


CBO's analysis suggests the proposals, on net, would probably increase labor supply but decrease investment and the stock of capital.

Largely because of those two opposing effects, the net effect on economic output could be either positive or negative--with the difference depending not only on how the private sector would respond to the proposals themselves, but also on how the proposals would influence what budgetary policies people might expect in the future. Importantly, regardless of its direction, the net effect on output through long-term changes to the supply side of the economy--including fundamental "inputs" such as labor supply or the stock of capital--would probably be small. Under most assumptions, the proposals' supply-side effects would raise or lower the level of output by less than a percentage point, on average, from 2004 to 2013.


There are two reasons that the supply-side effects are small. One is that the tax cuts themselves are small in relationship to GDP. Another reason is that the cuts are not the most effective cuts that one could make from a supply-side perspective. For example, it is difficult to impute a large supply-side response to reducing the estate tax.

For Discussion. Of the major Federal taxes--income tax, payroll tax, corporate income tax--which one likely has the largest supply-side effect relative to the revenue collected?


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CATEGORIES: Supply-side Economics



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The author at Asymmetrical Information in a related article titled Triumphantly Vindicated writes:
    The CBO verifies that it is just as I have been saying: supply side tax cus do not pay for [Tracked on April 3, 2003 7:48 AM]
The author at A Stranger In A Strange Land in a related article titled Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch... writes:
    It's April 15th. For a number of people the meaning of the date is merely symbolic, but for folks like us who actually have to write a check, it's a little more meaningful. The American people have spent so much... [Tracked on April 15, 2003 4:29 PM]
The author at A Stranger In A Strange Land in a related article titled Tax Cuts writes:
    I posted this same article on the tax cuts that Congress passed last week over at Slutetarian HQ. They're not quite old news. Dubya put his ink to it yesterday, making the whole thing official. The tax cut is ten... [Tracked on May 28, 2003 4:49 PM]
The author at Commerce and Money Grubbing in a related article titled Tax Cuts writes:
    I've been out of town for a few days, so I haven't posted to my own blog, much less contributed my thoughts on the tax cut that Congress passed last week. It's not quite old news yet, though. Dubya put... [Tracked on May 30, 2003 4:09 PM]
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