ARNOLD KLING
August 14, 2011
The Top Political Contributors
August 11, 2011
Gender and the New Commanding Heights
August 11, 2011
Jamie Galbraith Makes an Assumption
August 11, 2011
Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris
August 10, 2011
Real and Nominal Bond Yields
BRYAN CAPLAN
August 14, 2011
The Effect of Thumb Sucking on Income
August 12, 2011
The Voice of Cold, Hard Truth to All Would-Be Educators
August 12, 2011
Ability, Morality, and Prosperity: A Paper and a Report
August 11, 2011
The Theory of Time and Frittering
August 10, 2011
Male Variance and the Remnants of the Gender Gap
DAVID HENDERSON
August 9, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken", Part Two
August 8, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken"
August 5, 2011
James Bovard on the Peace Corps
August 4, 2011
Summers Way Off on FDR and 1941
August 3, 2011
The "Amazon" Tax
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The Oil at $150/barrel interests me. I have been reading a lot about the peak oil production estimates, where the world production of cheap oil starts to decline (as it did in the US in 1970). The estimates range from 2015 to as soon as 2000 for the year when oil production will start a slow but persistant decrease. So I think that there is at least a 1% chance that could happen. But what would I invest in?
I am English, petrol there costs about $4.50 - $5.00/US Gallon right now (mid 2003). This has not stopped people driving - they have no choice, they drive anyway, and most people still have a 30 minute commute. People do not drive Hummers in the UK - perhaps that is a short. There are a lot of tiny engine cars (0.9L) getting 35+ mpg.
My other thought is that cheap easy to pump gas is the kind of gas that aircraft like - so I would short airlines if they are not actually bankrupt already - except that I am too scared to short - I like to think more positively than that.
I think the only obvious buy is the companies who make windmills for electricity as US natural gas is also looking to be in bad shape (even Alan Greenspan noticed) and that appears to be a somewhat regional market. Right now however they seem to be small players under everyones radar screens. Who knows what will happen to them if they were suddenly needed to increase windmill production 100 fold whlist suddenly in competition with say GE.
Stephen
Setting up a sandwich truck in the ANWAR would be a good opportunity. Someone will have to feed the oil workers there. $150 a barrel might change a lot of votes in congress.
I simply do not believe this scenario is plausible. The odds are better that Shaq O’Neal will beg me for mercy on the basketball court. The oil price tag of $150 a barrel would mean that a horrendous disaster had occurred. No, it is far more likely that oil prices will drop considerably because of the recent Canadian finds and the new government being formed in Iraq. At this point (knock on wood), the future looks very bright.
Won't we eventually run out of oil? Heck, by that time we will switch to an alternative fuel source. I would never bet against the ingenuity of the human race.