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Bryan Caplan and Arnold Kling
PERMANENT LINK | AUGUST 14, 2004

All's Fair in Politics

Michael Munger
I Wish Tiebout Could See This... Not a Dime's Worth of Differen...
by Michael Munger
Guest Blogger
Economist Ray Fair's very simple model on presidential elections has some interesting things to say about the upcoming election. Given the macro-economic and macro-political factors that have mattered in the past, George W. Bush should win between 57% and 58% of the popular vote, according to the model. Any way that this happens implies a large Electoral College victory for Bush.

Here is the main estimation equation:


    VOTE = 55.57 + .691*GROWTH - .775*INFLATION + .837*GOODNEWS

You can simulate results by playing with your own assumed values here.

A note on the past: Fair's model predicted that Gore would win the 2000 election; and since "win" is defined in terms of popular vote, he was right! The prediction was that the Dem candidate takes 50.8% of the two party vote. The actual number received by Gore was 50.3%; pretty impressive.

CATEGORIES: Economic Methods , Growth: Consequences , Public Choice Theory

COMMENTS (4)
|

COMMENTS (4 to date)
George writes:

Let's hope that econometrics wins through again.

Posted August 14, 2004 11:56 PM
David Thomson writes:

Ray Fair's model, however, depends on our having a honest major media. Heck, we don't have that! The New York Times and the Washington Post lie like hell. President Bush has to overcome both the weaker John Kerry---and the corrupt liberal media.

Posted August 15, 2004 4:56 PM
Boonton writes:

Yawn, yea OK. Bush is suffering under the Evil Corrupte Liberal Media(tm) today in this age of Fox News while Gore, Clinton, Bush Sr., and Reagan enjoyed Platonically Pure Media Coverage?

More relevant, a single good prediction hardly makes a good model. Also, I find that '.837*GOODNEWS' a bit suspect. How objective is process to determine that rather subjective variable?

Posted August 16, 2004 9:11 AM
Vote Hound writes:

"There were thousands upon thousands of instances of election fraud committed by Republican operatives and the electronic vote was manipulated to favor Republicans. There is an ocean of evidence to show it."

Posted November 20, 2004 3:01 PM
Comments for this entry have been closed
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