While I'm in the middle of reading about "network commonwealths" in James C. Bennett's The Anglosphere Challenge, the National Intelligence Council, a CIA affiliate, has just released Mapping the Global Future.
Most forecasts indicate that by 2020 China’s gross national product (GNP) will exceed that of individual Western economic powers except for the United States. India’s GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies.
...Traditional geographic groupings will increasingly lose salience in international relations.
Bennett is adamant on the latter point. A main theme of his book is that in an information economy physical proximity matters less than cultural proximity. Hence his promotion of the "Anglosphere."
For Discussion. What factors might constrain growth in India or China in the next 15 years?