ARNOLD KLING
August 14, 2011
The Top Political Contributors
August 11, 2011
Gender and the New Commanding Heights
August 11, 2011
Jamie Galbraith Makes an Assumption
August 11, 2011
Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris
August 10, 2011
Real and Nominal Bond Yields
BRYAN CAPLAN
August 14, 2011
The Effect of Thumb Sucking on Income
August 12, 2011
The Voice of Cold, Hard Truth to All Would-Be Educators
August 12, 2011
Ability, Morality, and Prosperity: A Paper and a Report
August 11, 2011
The Theory of Time and Frittering
August 10, 2011
Male Variance and the Remnants of the Gender Gap
DAVID HENDERSON
August 9, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken", Part Two
August 8, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken"
August 5, 2011
James Bovard on the Peace Corps
August 4, 2011
Summers Way Off on FDR and 1941
August 3, 2011
The "Amazon" Tax
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Well at least the bet turns out to be non-zero-sum.
Could Mr. Simmons be serving his clients by reinforcing the notion of oil scarcity? Keep in mind that his company caters to oil exploration, production, and processing companies who might enjoy higher market capitalizations if they are perceived to be sitting on a huge inventory of a product we are running out of. Stock market valuations for these companies usually include a negative premium for future growth - i.e. their stock price is simply a function of the assets (proven reserves) they have in the ground today...thus the downside risk of scaremongering (crimping future demand or causing devaluation of growth prospects) is mitigated.
Honestly I think Mr. Simmons is sincere but my cynical side has to ask...
It was obvious Simmons wasn't interested in winning the bet when he insisted on terms that were much worse for him than those offered him.
One doesn't do that when betting to win. One does that for publicity.