October 11, 2009
Britain's Central Planning Death Panels
October 11, 2009
Free Market M.D.
October 11, 2009
Economies of Scale in Compliance
October 11, 2009
Balan's Challenge
October 10, 2009
The Pleasure of Telling Others What to Do
October 10, 2009
Gonick the Great - and How He Could Have Been Greater
October 9, 2009
More Scott Sumner
October 9, 2009
Not From The Onion
October 9, 2009
Thoughts on a Second Stimulus
Well at least the bet turns out to be non-zero-sum.
Could Mr. Simmons be serving his clients by reinforcing the notion of oil scarcity? Keep in mind that his company caters to oil exploration, production, and processing companies who might enjoy higher market capitalizations if they are perceived to be sitting on a huge inventory of a product we are running out of. Stock market valuations for these companies usually include a negative premium for future growth - i.e. their stock price is simply a function of the assets (proven reserves) they have in the ground today...thus the downside risk of scaremongering (crimping future demand or causing devaluation of growth prospects) is mitigated.
Honestly I think Mr. Simmons is sincere but my cynical side has to ask...
It was obvious Simmons wasn't interested in winning the bet when he insisted on terms that were much worse for him than those offered him.
One doesn't do that when betting to win. One does that for publicity.