Arnold Kling  

Rogoff vs. Blinder

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Ken Rogoff writes,

Globalization proceeded at a rapid pace through much of the last century, and at a particularly accelerated rate during its last two decades. Yet the vast body of evidence suggests that technological changes were a much bigger driver in global wage patterns than trade. That is, technology, not trade, was the big story of the twentieth-century economy (of course, the two interact, with trade helping to diffuse and stimulate technology, but this is a matter of semantics.)

Are we so sure that it will be different in this century? Or will artificial intelligence replace the mantra of outsourcing and manufacturing migration? Chess players already know the answer.

This is the point that I was going to make with respect to Blinder's forecast of rapid structural change due to globalization. That is, I believe that rapid structural change due to technology will be even more striking.

Thanks to Alex Tabarrok for the pointer.

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CATEGORIES: Growth: Consequences

COMMENTS (1 to date)
Mr. Anti-Econotarian writes:

So would you say that the technology that allowed this change is highly driven by globalized trade?

Where is my PC made? The chips are designed in one country (several countries now actually), the chips made in another country, the boards assembled in another, the PC assembled in another, and the OS written in another.

Technology is a driver, but the deployment of affordable technology depends on globalization and relative advantages.

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