The Market For Scientific Superstars

sheer numbers of trained scientists will not produce a major burst of innovation

Most innovations will come from a small number of scientists, but it may still be a numbers game. If a country graduates 10,000 science undergrads, and another country graduates only 1,000, I think it's likely that the first country will have more scientific superstars.

Here's an analogy: many of America's top athletes are playing basketball, football or baseball. If soccer were the game of choice for most athletes, then we would have more superstars on our soccer team. As it is, we're selecting from a fairly small pool of athletes.

If science were held in higher esteem, and supported more, I think more of our top minds would gravitate into science, rather than, say, economics or law. That, in turn, would generate more innovative breakthroughs.

Except literally, it can be hard to distinguish a superstar from an extinct volcano.

But China has 1/5th of the world's population and maybe 2/5ths of all the people in the world with an IQ above 100, so China is quite capable of assembling critical masses of Chinese superstars within China.

Culture and creativity are just as important as intelligence. China has both of these working against it in the quest for scientific innovation.

Culture and creativity are just as important as intelligence. China has both of these working against it in the quest for scientific innovation.

You're talking about what China? Imperial, Maoist, or prehistoric, because it sure isn't modern.