Labor Market Dynamics

I doubt Krugman will get it at this time, at least by himself. Baumol is a possibility, and Romer will certainly get it eventually, although this may not be the year.

Here are three combos likely to get it within the next five years, although I would not want to wager on any particular one for this year specifically.

International trade has not gotten it for a long time. Bhagwati and Dixit look like the top ones for that, although Krugman could get added on to that one, sort of the way Stiglitz got tagged onto the last one for asymmetric information. There are some other folks who could be in on that one, although I would say Bhagwati as the lead.

Fama and somebody, maybe nobody, for financial economics, even as the efficient markets hypothesis looks shakier and shakier.

Gordon Tullock and Anne Krueger for rent seeking.

I do not believe that the labor market is all that turbulant. When you note all the employees leaving companies you do not get an accurate picture of why? I believe that more and more baby boomers are reaching retirement age everyday and that is creating a huge group of people leaving the labor force. Also young employees tend to always be looking for the next best thing. The fact that more people are being hired than are leaving is disturbing all on its own. Does it take more people to replace the ones leaving or can it just be that more work has actually been created. I do agree however that retention is important due to the high training cost of new employess. But new recruiting strategies can not remedy people leaving you need to create a work place that is more satisfying to the workers.

Fama has certainly been important enough to win it; I'd daresay he'd be the top cited economists never to win if he dropped dead tomorrow. Dixit is certainly a good choice, as is Baumol. You've go to imagine we'll see some winners from growth theory in the near future as well.