ARNOLD KLING
August 14, 2011
The Top Political Contributors
August 11, 2011
Gender and the New Commanding Heights
August 11, 2011
Jamie Galbraith Makes an Assumption
August 11, 2011
Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris
August 10, 2011
Real and Nominal Bond Yields
BRYAN CAPLAN
August 14, 2011
The Effect of Thumb Sucking on Income
August 12, 2011
The Voice of Cold, Hard Truth to All Would-Be Educators
August 12, 2011
Ability, Morality, and Prosperity: A Paper and a Report
August 11, 2011
The Theory of Time and Frittering
August 10, 2011
Male Variance and the Remnants of the Gender Gap
DAVID HENDERSON
August 9, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken", Part Two
August 8, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken"
August 5, 2011
James Bovard on the Peace Corps
August 4, 2011
Summers Way Off on FDR and 1941
August 3, 2011
The "Amazon" Tax


Actually, Dan Gilbert's argument was that people are extremely good at reporting their emotional present. In fact, he argued that people couldn't remember or forecast their emotional states because they couldn't suspend their current emotional state the same way that they could suspend their current sensory inputs. They can vividly remember or even forecast a visual or tactile experience because their brain allows them to suspend their current visual and tactile inputs. The brain stubbornly refuses to allow you to suspend your current emotional sensations.
In fact, Gilbert's prescription for predicting your future experiences is to find someone to whom those experiences are currently happening. He argues that the differences between people and their preferences are generally much smaller than the errors introduced by trying to predict your future emotional outcomes.
We deal in a combinatorial world on one hand and a linear world on the other.
Our ability to remember events is more closely related to our ability to track some number of herd events, locally, over space and time. We remember a finite set, throwing away the least informative event, in our combinatorial world. The least informative event is either the farthest in time or weakest in strength.
The number N events we track result in the number N in which we assume binomial holds. It relates to the universal error ratio, or herding constant.
It defines the "rank" at which a herd member has to move between quantum states over time in order to approximate the binomial system in a combinatorial world.
When you move a herd of cattle to the rocky mountains and wait a few hundred years they look like mountain goats. The reason is the Solow growth residual, cows seek better ways to move from grassy knoll to grassy knoll so they can better approximate a gaussian distribution. They become more efficient at switching between quantum states under quantum restrictions.