Bryan Caplan  

Blogging When I Should Have Been Betting

Academic Corruption Index?... Mentioning IQ and race...

Last year I argued that AIDS estimates were inflated. Now the UN has cut its estimate of the number infected by 40%.

This is getting to be a pattern!

HT: Tyler (who once said I was dead wrong about this...)

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COMMENTS (2 to date)
Jim writes:

"Now the UN has cut its estimate of the number infected by 40%."

No, it's cut the number of new infections per year by 40%, and the total number currently infected by much less. It's also still talking about infection rates of one in four in the likes of Swaziland and Botswana, which you would agree is quite bad, would you not? And this news doesn't mean we spend too much on aid for health in Africa, though some will probably try to spin it in that direction - with the best of intentions, of course ...

General Specific writes:

Can you provide us with examples in which you were dead wrong? I'm concerned you're just overly-advertising your successes. Isn't that a type of bias?

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