Arnold Kling  

Alan Blinder on Globalization

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He writes,


Americans who want to stop the world fear that the nation either already is or is destined to become a victim of globalization. Such pessimism seems downright un-American. It is also fundamentally illogical. After all, much of globalization amounts to Americanization — as numerous foreign critics have ruefully observed. The United States has long been the biggest, most open, most market-oriented and most competitive economy on earth. Globalization is now spreading these practices to the rest of the world, creating a huge, open, competitive global marketplace. But Americans are past masters of this game. How can we lose if the rest of the world decides to play on our field?

Yes, this is the same Alan Blinder who sometimes is cited as being one of the economists who is willing to break with the conventional wisdom on trade. Rumors of his apostasy have been greatly exaggerated.

One further point that I would make is that our non-oil trade balance is slowly improving, and if it were not for that. Putting on my Keynesian hat, I would say that without the trade sector, the recession that everyone is worried about would already have started and the outlook for 2008 would be even dicier. So we should pray that nothing happens this year to cause international trade to seize up.


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CATEGORIES: International Trade



COMMENTS (2 to date)
Gary Rogers writes:

If economists ruled the world there would be hope. However, when everyone in one party thinks that large increases in Federal health care, rolling back tax cuts, and increased taxes on the oil companies is the way to go and a leading candidate in the other party doesn't want to look like someone who can provide jobs I am still pretty pessimistic. Would either you or Alan consider running for president?

spencer writes:

Too many people have been putting words in Binders' mouth and have not really read what he actually said.

One of the under-appreciated factors behind the "great moderation" is that inventory corrections now show up much more as a drop in imports rather then a drop in demand for domestic products. We export the weakness and the Keynesian multipliers are much smaller -- both on the upside and downside.

It is a structural change in the economy and a major reason why recessions are less likely in the modern economy.

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