How Globalization Will Save Your Life

But if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the U.S. and were devoting the same share of population to research and development, there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers worldwide.

Presently this is not a valid assumption. Engineers and scientists are drawn from the small group of high IQ, specifically high math IQ, persons at the right tail of the distribution. Having a low math IQ, basically excludes you from pursuingthese fields of study, much like being short excludes you from a career in the NBA.

The mean IQ outside the western world is considerably lower than it is in the western world and, for that matter, we've probably brain drained at least some of the high IQ talent that exists from non-western countries already. So, the supply of high IQ people needed to sustain all these budding engineers and scientists does not exist in outside of the western countries. The pool of qualified people is going to be considerably smaller (per capita) than the current pool and the end result will be less engineers and scientists per capita than the present number. The supply is simply not there.

Now, poverty is a harsh envirnmental factor that depresses IQ, but lifting these people out of poverty will not bridge the current IQ gaps. We see these gaps persist today even in the west where poverty is far less severe.

...but we don't need to know exact numbers to recognize that increasing wealth worldwide will lead to an increase in scientists and engineers, not to mention the market for innovation. All the excitement is at the margin!