ARNOLD KLING
August 14, 2011
The Top Political Contributors
August 11, 2011
Gender and the New Commanding Heights
August 11, 2011
Jamie Galbraith Makes an Assumption
August 11, 2011
Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris
August 10, 2011
Real and Nominal Bond Yields
BRYAN CAPLAN
August 14, 2011
The Effect of Thumb Sucking on Income
August 12, 2011
The Voice of Cold, Hard Truth to All Would-Be Educators
August 12, 2011
Ability, Morality, and Prosperity: A Paper and a Report
August 11, 2011
The Theory of Time and Frittering
August 10, 2011
Male Variance and the Remnants of the Gender Gap
DAVID HENDERSON
August 9, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken", Part Two
August 8, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken"
August 5, 2011
James Bovard on the Peace Corps
August 4, 2011
Summers Way Off on FDR and 1941
August 3, 2011
The "Amazon" Tax
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Why do the markets think Castro stepping down will matter?
Me too. And not just because I think that the only good communist is a dead communist.
I'll be drinking a Cuba Libre or two tonight, that's for sure.
Bryan, maybe you could take up drinking for this occasion?
mgroves:
Probably because investors have never heard of Fidel's brother.
I believe that it doesn't matter if Fidel Castro resigned from office. I think government is like a "mafia", doesn't matter what the country is. Now, talking about Cuba, it is more obvious that Fidel Castro has and will have his hands involved in government. The fact is that he will no longer be the phisical or actual dictator of Cuba, but he'll be just as an influential person that can mandate and inforce "new laws".
Do you think that things politics in Cuba will change with Fidel Castro's resignation?
My opinion is that they will change from a communist to a democracy so that it will have open trade with the US. I think that if they came to there senses and changed, it would boom with cigar sells. but more than likely, it will have a big impact with the US cigar industry.
Cuba would also benefit from tourism. They could open up some resorts and advertise. Similar to what some states do. And to make it even better, Cubans would not have to float here anymore. They can take a 2 hour boat trip here and visit.
I know that if the USA lifts the embargo, I would love to go visit Little Havanna
Although in the past he was supposedly the more pro-Soviet and Marxist-Leninist of the two, supposedly more recently Raul has been more pragmatic and open to freer markets than Fidel. That may not translate to the genuine political liberalization that would really open things up, but he has signaled that he wants to deal with the US, and putting him in the top position officially may lead to enough dealing to lead to some loosening of the economic embargo at least, which is what this market index is about.
Maybe the market says otherwise, but it's been acting a little irrationally lately, so we sould probably take it with a grain of salt. The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund's investments include a paltry $16 million of assets, about $1 million of which are U.S. treasuries, and most are small bets under $500K. It's major investments include Consolidated Water (CWCO) at about $1.3 million and Seabord Corporation (SEB), at about $1.5 million. Those individual securities were up yesterday, but nowhere near 17%. I think this disconnect is likely due to the fact that over-enthusiastic investors were drawn to the fund's stock ticker: "CUBA." I blogged more on this Wednesday morning.
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