Bryan Caplan  

Wisdom of Crowds Blog Experiment

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Dan Phiffer, a blogger I met at SXSW, has set up a little "wisdom of crowds" experiment on his blog. Check it out, and see if you can make the crowd a little wiser. :-)


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COMMENTS (6 to date)
sikantis writes:

I checked it out and it was great. I like the idea of posting an email exchange, it's like reading a dialog.

Mason writes:

I think his "experiment" proved your point. Anyone can post will low costs, and all posts recieve the same weight - not a good way to sort information.

Now if he had created a market (as the word experiment lead me to hope) in which I could have longed markets and shorted organic blogs, I may have done more than give the site a cursory glance.

Dan Phiffer writes:

Mason -- how would you design a market like this?

Also, how would you guys respond to commenter Abe's claim that there's an inconsistency between trusting non-experts in the marketplace but not in the voting booth?

Dan Phiffer writes:

Also, Bryan, looks like somebody took your suggestion for a kidney market to heart.

Mason writes:

I didn't say it was easy or that I could do it, if either of those were the case, it wouldn't have excited me, and I wouldn't have followed the link to investigate because .

Robin Hanson is really the person to talk to about designing markets like this.

In-trade is a good working example: http://www.intrade.com/

But I'll throw out an idea; ask some math people to come up with a complex problem, post the problem on blogs and on a market. Solicit answers, accept 10 answers, let the market put a price on each answer, let bloggers vote on each answer. Then see if the winning blog answer is closer to the correct answer than the market answer (the one with the highest price).

Rob Domanski writes:

I like the idea a lot. I'm running a "wisdom of the crowds" experiment of my own. Basically, I'm planning my wedding based on aggregate crowd decision-making. Would love any feedback:

http://thenerfherder.blogspot.com/2008/03/wedding-to-test-wisdom-of-crowds-theory.html

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