Bryan Caplan  

Euro Bet II x3: The Bet's On

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Mark Steyn's graciously accepted my latest Euro bet, along with David Henderson and EconLog reader Rafiv. (Rafiv, I will need to know your full name and location to seal the deal with you; just let me know and we're on). In the process, Steyn raises a fair question:

Hey, why not make it a grand? A hundred bucks'll barely buy you a falafel at the Tour d'Argent in the Paris of 2020.
Unfortunately, I'm afraid my wife would get mad at me if I started making thousand-dollar bets. I'm happy to bet money, but I draw the line at peace of mind. :-) So I'll limit myself to a trio of $100 bets.

P.S. The clock's still ticking on my original Euro bet with Jeremy Rabkin. Don't let me forget to collect on January 1, 2011.

P.P.S. For the convenience of anyone reading this in 2020, the following EU members had populations exceeding 10M in 2007: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania, Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.


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TRACKBACKS (3 to date)
TrackBack URL: http://econlog.econlib.org/mt/mt-tb.cgi/823
The author at Jim's Blog in a related article titled Caplan bets Europe will survive writes:
    The states of Europe have police, tanks, bombers and an immense budget, whereas the various threats to their existence are tiny and have nothing much– but the threats have internal cohesion, and the states of Europe do not. ... [Tracked on April 29, 2008 12:03 AM]
COMMENTS (13 to date)
John Fast writes:

Can I get in on this? I'm happy to bet a hundred or a thousand, with each of them.

In fact, why not bet on the strength of the dollar vs. the Euro? Put up $100 versus the current equivalent in Euros.

Gerard O'Neill writes:

Folks, as a European living on the EU's and eurozone's western fringe (i.e.: Ireland) can I ask: what's the big deal about a country leaving the EU? We have vote here in June on an EU treaty that includes the formal recognition of a process for the voluntary withdrawal by any member state. It's not the kind of thing we'll have, er, a civil war over - if you get my drift. Secession anyone?

Jody writes:

What's the ruling if Belgium splits but the two parts (each less than 7 million) remain in the EU?

Dennis Mangan writes:

The UK will be the first to go.

liberty writes:

The UK would first have to join.

liberty writes:

oops, sorry, I meant to the currency. The UK is also least likely to agree to the constitution, etc.

Bryan Caplan writes:
John Fast writes:

Can I get in on this? I'm happy to bet a hundred or a thousand, with each of them.

In fact, why not bet on the strength of the dollar vs. the Euro? Put up $100 versus the current equivalent in Euros.

Sure, John, consider us on for $100.
John Fast writes:

Bryan, apparently I didn't make myself clear: I'm on your side.

I'm happy to sit on the opposite side of the table from you when we're playing poker, or Champions, or Hunter: The Reckoning...

Why not specify your bets in silver? At current prices of $17.00/oz, 6 oz of silver is worth about $100.00.

It's also near the value (~$120.00) of a 20 coin roll of pre-1965 1/2 dollars (0.361 troy oz/coin).

Or specify the bets in inflation-adjusted dollars?

Bryan Caplan writes:
John Fast writes:

Bryan, apparently I didn't make myself clear: I'm on your side.

I'm happy to sit on the opposite side of the table from you when we're playing poker, or Champions, or Hunter: The Reckoning...

In that case, the Caplan-Fast bet is not on!
Dan Hill writes:

One of the commenters says "the UK will be the first to go". That demonstrates why Bryan's money is safe. The Brits have been whining about the EU like spoilt teenagers almost since the day they joined 35 years ago - and they're still in!

Together with the natural forces of inertia it's almost inconceivable that a member state could get to the point of making the momentous decision to leave in less than a generation...

Zubon writes:

The inflation adjustment is an interesting thing. Bryan can lose the bet any year but win only in 2020. Bryan is potentially betting 2009-dollars to win 2020-dollars. I'd estimate the implicit odds, but I don't have good priors on the inflation rate or likelihood distribution across years. But hey, it's an econ blog, so feel free to run with your own assumptions.

PenskeFile writes:

The Irish have rejected the Lisbon treaty,which could put the entire treaty in jeapordy. Any thoughts Bryan on what this means to the probability of you winning the bet with Steyn?

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