October 11, 2009
Britain's Central Planning Death Panels
October 11, 2009
Free Market M.D.
October 11, 2009
Economies of Scale in Compliance
October 11, 2009
Balan's Challenge
October 10, 2009
The Pleasure of Telling Others What to Do
October 10, 2009
Gonick the Great - and How He Could Have Been Greater
October 9, 2009
More Scott Sumner
October 9, 2009
Not From The Onion
October 9, 2009
Thoughts on a Second Stimulus
Arnold keeps beating the mathematical expectation drum, even though you're betting even money on a positive or negative. I don't get it.
Wait a sec... Arnold says something to the effect of:
Put $100 down and roll a d10. On a 1, loose all your money. On a 2 through 10, gain $5.
I wouldn't take that bet. Am I missing something here?
Eh, never mind, hadn't had my coffee yet...
Even though I agree with your position in general (that the bailout is much likely more likely to lose money than gain), I'm on the fence about taking your bet as I think the opportunities for the CBO to declare a gain despite there being a significant loss in real terms that account for all costs are very wide.
If arnold thinks most of the losses happen in a 10% extreme scenario, I don't understand why he wouldn't take your bet.