Bryan Caplan  

Bet Update

See Blindness... Why Do People Keep Calling Tyl...
It looks like I have two takers in the comments: Michael K and Steve Roth.  To seal the deal, I just need you guys to email me and give me enough info so I can identify you "in real life" when it's time to settle up.

I'm also happy to bet Arnold - if he sticks with his probabilities (90% chance of small gain, 10% of enormous loss), he should, because this bet has a binary payoff.  Arnold?

Andy Kessler has not responded to my post or email.  The charitable explanations are that he's too famous to notice my offer, or too rich to find a $100 bet interesting.  Want to help change his mind? (email address from

P.S. The bets from Steve Roth and Michael Kayatta have been confirmed.

Comments and Sharing

COMMENTS (4 to date)
Michael Kolczynski writes:

Arnold keeps beating the mathematical expectation drum, even though you're betting even money on a positive or negative. I don't get it.

Grant writes:

Wait a sec... Arnold says something to the effect of:

Put $100 down and roll a d10. On a 1, loose all your money. On a 2 through 10, gain $5.

I wouldn't take that bet. Am I missing something here?

Grant writes:

Eh, never mind, hadn't had my coffee yet...

michael e sullivan writes:

Even though I agree with your position in general (that the bailout is much likely more likely to lose money than gain), I'm on the fence about taking your bet as I think the opportunities for the CBO to declare a gain despite there being a significant loss in real terms that account for all costs are very wide.

If arnold thinks most of the losses happen in a 10% extreme scenario, I don't understand why he wouldn't take your bet.

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