June 9, 2009
More on the Fischer Black Model
June 9, 2009
The Purpose of the Public Health Insurance Plan
June 8, 2009
Justin Fox, Fischer Black, Tyler Cowen
June 8, 2009
Limits to Progress?
June 8, 2009
Behaviorial Geneticists versus Policy Implications
June 7, 2009
Isn't That Just an Asian Effect?
June 7, 2009
Forecasting
June 6, 2009
On Being Certain
June 6, 2009
Obama on How Markets Reduce Racial Discrimination
Not a chance. A person, even a financial prophet, who says "Do nothing" is not newsworthy.
Well Ron Paul and Peter Schiff (and many other Austrians) predicted it and generally receive airtime (Paul and Schiff, not really anyone else). But they generally haven't pointed out specifics, like the stock market will fall -30% this year and been right. They take a longer view. Roubini is more inclined to give statistics.
Schiff also doesn't get half the credibility that Roubini or Taleb get. And they really don't get that much.
I imagine people who are proven right in one area have always been deemed fonts of wisdom on many fronts. I guess it's in our nature to ascribe false intellect and foresight to the successful and to go to these people to ask the way forward. This problem is surely compounded by the fact that many of these individuals believe they have know more than they do (false confidence).
ps - But to answer your question, yes Mr Caplan, they will listen to you for a while, but people demand 'ACTION'. They want to be saved, not to save themselves.
Schiff may have correctly foreseen the American bubble, but completely missed the fact that foreign markets would also bust, instead of decoupling from the US economy as he predicted. His clients are feeling as much pain as US investors, if not more.