Bryan Caplan  

What If I Were Dr. Doom?

A Mortgage Fact Pack... Notes From the Bailout...
Nouriel Roubini says the market will fall another 20-25%, and advocates a bailout for U.S. automakers.  In fact, while he recognizes a line-drawing problem, he seems to favor a bailout for any firm that involves "systemic" risk.

I wonder: If I had correctly predicted the stock market crash, if I were "Dr. Doom," would people be listening to my policy advice to let the free market work out its own solution?

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COMMENTS (4 to date)
Jeremy Bettis writes:

Not a chance. A person, even a financial prophet, who says "Do nothing" is not newsworthy.

KF writes:

Well Ron Paul and Peter Schiff (and many other Austrians) predicted it and generally receive airtime (Paul and Schiff, not really anyone else). But they generally haven't pointed out specifics, like the stock market will fall -30% this year and been right. They take a longer view. Roubini is more inclined to give statistics.

Schiff also doesn't get half the credibility that Roubini or Taleb get. And they really don't get that much.

Riz Din writes:

I imagine people who are proven right in one area have always been deemed fonts of wisdom on many fronts. I guess it's in our nature to ascribe false intellect and foresight to the successful and to go to these people to ask the way forward. This problem is surely compounded by the fact that many of these individuals believe they have know more than they do (false confidence).

ps - But to answer your question, yes Mr Caplan, they will listen to you for a while, but people demand 'ACTION'. They want to be saved, not to save themselves.

MTB writes:

Schiff may have correctly foreseen the American bubble, but completely missed the fact that foreign markets would also bust, instead of decoupling from the US economy as he predicted. His clients are feeling as much pain as US investors, if not more.

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