Who Knows Macro?

I want to see these economists put their money where their mouth is. Bets, investment advice, something tangible. Let's see how much they're willing to bet on the success or failure of a stimulus.

Otherwise, I'll stick with investors such as Jim Rogers. His criticism is more valuable: he bets his portfolio and his life (moving to Singapore) on it.

"I don't think that the proponents of a stimulus can claim superior intellectual firepower." Did any of them predict the current calamity? If not, you might as well ask me: at least I managed that.

Face to face debate is a form of theater. The person with the most dramatic charisma carries the day. I think a written exchange is better. Something like Friedman's debate with his critics on monetarism.

I agree with ionides that there is very little if anything to be gained from face to face debate besides entertaining spectacle. A more formalized form of written exchange might be better, though, than scattered blog postings.

Did any of them predict the current calamity?

It might have been for the wrong reasons, and with some of the wrong side-effects, but Krugman did call the housing bubble.

If all of you used shock collars and the audience had the buttons, that might be worth seeing.

Giving people credit for predicting the crash is tricky. While I agree with some of Krugman's points over the years, for example, he did also predict a recession for a very long time before it happened. Does that just mean his timing was off, or is he a broken clock that's right twice a day, or some of both? Ends up being a matter of opinion.

I'm with Yancey! If not shock collars, at least soaked sponges to bean the highest-status person on stage!

Take it on the road and call it Econoramapaloosa, Audience Precipitation. Awesome!

No matter who says what about anything the law of unintended consequences will rule. All of the experts will be wrong.

"I do not believe that the debate will be settled by empirical evidence. We have historical data, but we do not have controlled experiments in macro."

That sounds very similar to one of the ideas in Ludwig von Mises' Human Action:

"The information conveyed by historical experience cannot be used as building material for the construction of theories and the prediction of future events. Every historical experience is open to various interpretations, and is in fact interpreted in different ways."

Mises' developed an a priori system describing human behavior in response. What are your thoughts on his praxeology? How can such thinking benefit us in these troubled times?

I have a better idea. Let all stimulus opponents send me their money and I will demonstrate how it works. Be sure to send me lots as I do not simply want to reduce your spending.