Jim Rogers: What He's Saying, Where He's Gone

A real patriot ...

A good interview with Jim Rogers:

http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/2009/02/27/jim-rogers-agriculture-is-going-to-be-the-best-place-to-be.aspx

Jim Rogers has his good moments, but his predictions about commodities have been way off the mark.

p(collapse of western civilization as we know it within the next 20 years) = .3

I don't fault Jim for his choice. Nor do I fault the many productive and law-abiding Europeans who are fleeing the crime, taxation and lawlessness that exist in their places of birth.

Singapore (and I imagine China will be following close behind) is embracing all of the best aspects of Western Civ and very few of the worst. Perhaps they've earned a try at the whole empire thing. We certainly haven't.

Cheers

Zdeno

My Dad was talking to me today about moving to Chile on roughly the same grounds.

I dunno. Just seems like high-stakes market-timing to me; maybe he can pull it off, but it doesn't seem generalizable. What if he's off by 20 years?

But in any case, from what I can tell, the rest of the world seems, generally, in worse shape than the US - and if things go belly-up worldwide, I'd much rather be a native-born citizen in the country that has a 200+ year history of economic, political, and religious freedom than the odd-duck, foreign-born white guy in the continent where that same long history of freedom just isn't there.

Joseph,
How many millions have you made in commodities markets? I would say Jim Rogers is doing just fine.

"What if he's off by 20 years?"

He's very rich, so whatever happens he will be fine.

A real patriot ...

And what exactly were your ancestors when they fled the country of their birth to come to the United States, Steve Sailor?

Smart people go where they have the most opportunity. It seems that the United States is sliding down the list of destination countries.

"Smart people go where they have the most opportunity." Maybe. But in much of Europe smart people who thought they could succeed in the fierce competition of societies where the niches were already occupied, stayed: those who were less sure went to America.

If the government’s share of GDP rises from around 20% to around 30% or 35%, won't he be fundamentally right? Won't this be the beginning of the end for the US as the world’s most powerful country if the unprecedented expansion of government is not reversed in 4 years?

"What if he's off by 20 years?"

He's very rich, so whatever happens he will be fine.

I'm skeptical.

I've thought for a very long time that my children's generation (late teens/early twenties) would be the first to leave our shores for greater opportunity. I'm afraid I'll be proven right. The US may remain a very good place to live for generations to come but there will be greater opportunity elsewhere.

You say "patriot" like that's a good thing. Patriot typically means someone who is willing to hurt others based on where they were born. You can like where you live without all the semi-mystical motherland/fatherland crap that patriotism has at its' heart.

Jim Rodgers is doing what most intelligent people who want to live peaceful and prosperous lives would do. Moving himself and his ffamily to where the opportunities are best for them.. just like the people who moved here were doing. He is truer to what we consider the the spirit of those who founded this country than most of the people who actually live here today.

These trends take decades to play out. The U.S. will always be a wealthy country with freedom, but if you are smart and capable, you will move to places that offer the greatest rewards.

China, short of a break down, will attract people if only because it will grow faster than the West. However, throw in the implied tax rates from Social Security and Medicare, plus the attacks on tax shelters, and its clear that young people would be wise to physically relocate overseas.

But in much of Europe smart people who thought they could succeed in the fierce competition of societies where the niches were already occupied, stayed

Of course they did. In socialist societies what's important is not what you know but who you know. If you're close to power or otherwise have an "in", why would you risk your sure thing for the unknown of the United States? That wouldn't be smart.

> A lot of this seems over the top even to me.

Huh. Rhetorically it is extreme, but I think the decline that we're in is for the long term. We'll have a recovery, yes, but we'll never be quite the same again. I just hope the slide down doesn't get too ugly.

Vastly more problematic for the U.S. economy than Jim Rogers leaving is the fact that his capital had already left.

So what? If your finances are such that you have a $16M mansion to sell, you could live in the north pole and be happy.

Mr. Rogers can say whatever… and move to wherever… The salient fact is what passport he travels on and what citizenship he holds....???? As Americans are subject to tax on ALL world income…. minus a deductable for over-seas residents… at the end-of-the-day one is responsible back to one’s country of citizenship; as there are no “International Passports”.

wab, can you think of a better reason to give up your citizenship? If he has become a citizen of Singapore, which I believe is the case, none of this is relevant.

Cheers. (Likely the happiest thing you'll see in a very long time).

whats the big deal wait till it goes pair shaped and then moove to timbucktoo

"expat writes:
wab, can you think of a better reason to give up your citizenship? If he has become a citizen of Singapore, which I believe is the case, none of this is relevant.
Posted March 10, 2009 2:40 PM"

I think this is the most interesting thing to see... Jim always proclaims he's 100% American, and he's only a Singapore resident, but I wonder if he'll eventually give up his US citizenship. The thing is, Singapore is one of the few countries that REQUIRE that new citizens renounce their old citizenships (most countries don't care).
In the US, if tax evasion is identified as the reason why you are renouncing your citizenship, you'll still have to pay to Uncle Sam. So if Jim wants to get rid of future tax liabilities to the States, he can say that he HAS to give up his US citizenship because of Singapore laws and his desire to become Singaporean.

Obviously, it's nothing but my speculation, but I find it interesting that he has that option and I wonder what he'll do, especially given looming estate tax concerns...

By the way, I definitely wouldn't judge him at all for that! He should do what's best for his family and what reflects his vision of the world.

I had an option of moving permanently to the States, but due to taxation, chose to live in another OECD but stick to US visas instead of going the green card route (which automatically means I would have to pay the IRS even if I decide to move abroad!)

Some day, I definitely plan to move to Asia (preferably mainland China) myself. I just want to improve my Mandarin first.