Four Year From Now Plans

I have this really great plan for X, but I won't let it happen until after the next election. This first election was just a taste where I show you what I will do, if you elect me again. For now I'm doing nothing.

You think the opposition party won't have fun with that set-up?

Isn't the delay a tacit admission by the politicians that their policies absolutely will have negative effects? Seems like some wily politicians should point this out and use it to their advantage.

The thing is, both issues are so important, they require immediate legislation with no debate.

Ignorance and irrationality are soulmates. Ignorance minimizes the cognitive dissonance people experience when their biases are embraced.

But like steroid-use in professional sports, is it really cheating if they all do it? How can voters punish every politician?

My guess is if they get the policies in place now then by the time the costs start to kick in there will be people who are dependent upon those policies. Then they'll have success stories to tell and they'll be able to portray the dependent people as victims if anyone tries to scale the policies back.

I'm afraid the delay is often just a parlimentary trick to get around CBO scoring. CBO "costs" and PAYGO are often scored over a 10-year horizon. By pushing the costs back even a few years a bill's official cost can be cut dramatically. Note the healthcare proposal CBO scored at ~1.1T 10-year cost is closer to 1.6T if the 10-year window starts in 2013 after all costs are in place.

If I pass a law requiring every family to burn $1,000 of real assets a year starting now the CBO will score it as $10,000 per family. A "fiscally conservative" pol can look out for American working families by altering the bill to require the destruction of $1,200/yr starting in 5 years. The CBO will say the new bill is 28% "cheaper" using the 10-year window.

Promises of large cash hand-outs four years from now give political leverage to the leadership in power. Example: they can now go to their constituencies and say "if you don't support health-care reform the stimulus money that is coming your way could be endangered".

Maybe I miss something, but isn't it possible that application is delayed to give some time to your industry to prepare?

I'll go with the irrational model. I haven't found the median voter, but everyone with whom I've spoken--outside of specialized academics--hasn't even heard of Waxman's Cap and Trade bill. I've tested out explanations on some, but my listener's eyes glaze over faster than the Bering Sea in a January storm.