Bryan Caplan  

Intrade on the Midterms

A Non-State Within a State?... Health Care Summit Pre-Mortem...
Intrade now hosts fourteen different betting markets on the number of House seats the Republicans gain in the 2010 elections.  "Republicans gain 35 or more seats" is trading at roughly 50/50.  That's not quite enough to instantly win my bet with Arnold, but I'm still feeling pretty smug about it.

Price for Number of House seats gained by Republicans in 2010 US midterms at

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COMMENTS (5 to date)
Arnold Kling writes:

worst. bet. ever.

caveat bettor writes:

worst bet ever for whom?

disclosure: I currently do not have any risk capital allocated to this contract, but might nibble now.

chipotle writes:

It seems more likely than not to me that Arnold is safe for this election season.

I have to imagine that 2012 is the year that Caplan wins his bet...

...unless, of course, the US no longer exists as a going entity by Election Day, 2012.

(Remember how quickly USSR collapsed?)

Peter writes:

Could this bet be essentially meaningless? The common man will be snookered into voting for a Republican and thinking that things will change. We'll get a lot more spying and warring and slightly less health care socialism. Ah, the glories of democracy.

Joshua Johnson writes:

I wish I could have taken this bet with Mr. Kling.

No chance you lose this one Bryan. The current political climate aside, it would appear that the political landscape is not at equilibrium in the U.S. when one side controls all aspects of the federal government. Markets tend to over correct so we seem to always end up with a political pendulum swing that occurs every few years.

Just my $.02

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