Intrade now hosts fourteen different betting markets on the number of House seats the Republicans gain in the 2010 elections. “Republicans gain 35 or more seats” is trading at roughly 50/50. That’s not quite enough to instantly win my bet with Arnold, but I’m still feeling pretty smug about it.
READER COMMENTS
Arnold Kling
Feb 25 2010 at 8:17am
worst. bet. ever.
caveat bettor
Feb 25 2010 at 8:32am
worst bet ever for whom?
disclosure: I currently do not have any risk capital allocated to this contract, but might nibble now.
chipotle
Feb 25 2010 at 9:57am
It seems more likely than not to me that Arnold is safe for this election season.
I have to imagine that 2012 is the year that Caplan wins his bet…
…unless, of course, the US no longer exists as a going entity by Election Day, 2012.
(Remember how quickly USSR collapsed?)
Peter
Feb 25 2010 at 3:45pm
Could this bet be essentially meaningless? The common man will be snookered into voting for a Republican and thinking that things will change. We’ll get a lot more spying and warring and slightly less health care socialism. Ah, the glories of democracy.
Joshua Johnson
Mar 2 2010 at 8:38am
I wish I could have taken this bet with Mr. Kling.
No chance you lose this one Bryan. The current political climate aside, it would appear that the political landscape is not at equilibrium in the U.S. when one side controls all aspects of the federal government. Markets tend to over correct so we seem to always end up with a political pendulum swing that occurs every few years.
Just my $.02
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