How Rude

Wait. Most of the time you're telling us that nobody can predict the future. Now you're telling us that we should all be listening to the rude, blunt, and socially cut off. They're apparently the predictors.

Not trying to be rude, blunt, and socially cut off, but you do realize that you frequently contradict yourself in your blog, don't you?

Count me confused.

You have to be disagreeable in order to be right when everyone else is wrong. That doesn't mean that every disagreeable disagreeing person is right.

It is only the rude, blunt, and socially cut off that are willing to try and see the extended order for what it is. Perhaps it is their very nature that allows them to do so.

Being a vital part of the extended order requires one to buy into the order's social conventions. Those that are courteous, diplomatic, and socially connected are less inclined to study the extended order of which they are a part, perhaps because they are expending most of their energy and capital being courteous, diplomatic, and socially connected. Membership in the extended order prohibits one from getting a clearer picture of how the order operates.

It seems that the rude, blunt and socially cut off have a hard time changing their stripes as well. Sure, from time to time it's easy to join in the camraderie of the what, me worry? crowd but then it just seems to make more sense to focus on what can be done about the problems and hope someone wants to know while one is still alive!

I am indeed pleased. Most rude folks do not see clearly, but those who do see bad news clearly and tell others must seem rude, which reduces the incentive to see clearly. Good for Arnold that he happened to have an easy way to short the bubble; too bad most of the rest of us did not.