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Arnold Kling

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A Kauffman Foundation survey of a non-random sample. I think that the questions may tell you more than the answers:

Tyler Cowen asks whether the Chinese economy will crack up in five years.

Mark Thoma asks what will happen to the U.S. saving rate.

Ken Houghton asks whether the dollar will still be the reserve currency.

I ask whether the U.S. will have a debt crisis.

Seems like we are focused on international macro performance and debt issues. (Mark Perry asks for an assessment of the seriousness of a bunch of issues, and fiscal debt crises came out number one. The answers come from a larger--but still non-random--sample than just the five of us)

more here.

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Latest Comment

MernaMoose writes:

Interesting info.

Posted May 8, 2010 3:46 AM

Tom Grey writes:

No, tho there may be a continuing correction, as well as more anti-pollution riots and "where are the women" issues for the too-many Chinese guys.

The US Saving Rate will be low, and stay low (less than 3% per year; often less than 2%).

Yes, the main reserve currency remains U$D; tho the Chinese may offer to lend the US gov't more "renminbi bonds". When the US gov't feels it must borrow in a non-US currency, that will be signal for a coming (within 5 years) debt crisis.

No debt crisis until the US borrows in another currency -- money printing first.

My free opinion, worth at least twice -- a legend in my own mind. Least sure about the US saving rate.

Posted May 8, 2010 6:58 PM

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