ARNOLD KLING
August 14, 2011
The Top Political Contributors
August 11, 2011
Gender and the New Commanding Heights
August 11, 2011
Jamie Galbraith Makes an Assumption
August 11, 2011
Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris
August 10, 2011
Real and Nominal Bond Yields
BRYAN CAPLAN
August 14, 2011
The Effect of Thumb Sucking on Income
August 12, 2011
The Voice of Cold, Hard Truth to All Would-Be Educators
August 12, 2011
Ability, Morality, and Prosperity: A Paper and a Report
August 11, 2011
The Theory of Time and Frittering
August 10, 2011
Male Variance and the Remnants of the Gender Gap
DAVID HENDERSON
August 9, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken", Part Two
August 8, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken"
August 5, 2011
James Bovard on the Peace Corps
August 4, 2011
Summers Way Off on FDR and 1941
August 3, 2011
The "Amazon" Tax
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The "European Welfare State" is in some ways a mythical beast in that it differs a great deal from country to country. I think that, culturally, there are also huge differences between, say, Portugal and Finland, which certainly have an impact on how things will work out.
Who knows for sure, but there are plenty of things to like about Europe, so my guess is that successful countries will continue to adapt and improve - they may ditch some aspects of their welfare states and adopt new ones. The problems start when things stagnate, like they appear to be doing in Italy as of late.
reply to no.1
it seems to me the risk of crisis in France/Germany is far bigger than in Scandinavia.(finland may be be an exception due to demographics)
Norway has more money than God, and Sweden has near replacement birthrates, independent monetary policy, and most importantly, indexes new pensions to NGDP growth. I dont know the situation in Denmark but it wouldn't be surprising if they are in even better shape given their neoliberal reputation.
At any rate, since about 1990 economic problems in northern europe have been met with neoliberal reforms rather than begging and riots. Plus, for reforms, there is plenty of low hanging fruit left to give a nice supply side boost if the situation deteriorates.
Still, France is a crybaby welfare state, and Germany is in a demographic nose dive. If they both hit the wall it is hard to see that not dragging the rest of Europe and maybe even the world into crisis.
The real question is, does Greece combined with General Motors' bankruptcy raise questions about the viability of the welfare state?
Arnold, Alberto Alesina's short essay in the collection says that Germany must come to grips with "supply-side rigidities".
While better than Germany, Sweden is definitely not near replacement fertility, but it has risen significantly in the last 5 year period (from 1.67 to 1.80- replacement is roughly 2.1)
Yeah, I overstated my point. But still 1.8 aint bad!
It is something to work with anyway, and I think the younger 20something gernation is even more natalist. Unlike Germany which it is a lost cause.