Recalculation Story Watch

As I read these data, they do not particularly support the recalculation story. It takes time to fill job openings, and the data show new hires happening at a rate that is consistent with the increase in job openings. As indicated by initial unemployment claims, layoffs (consistent with the cyclical weakness indicated by a level of job openings that is still very low despite having risen from an even lower level) are very high for a recovery, and to raise employment, gross hiring has to be enough to absorb those layoffs. I discussed these and related issues in a recent blog post. If anything, I'd say the data are fairly hostile to the recalculation story, as we would expect hiring to be even weaker, given the incentives noted by Mark Perry.

I'm starting to believe that the higher employment rates of college graduates are as much a mobility issue as anything. Anyone with a college degree usually has more money in the first place, and therefore has an easier time moving where the jobs are...not so for those without the degree.