ARNOLD KLING
August 14, 2011
The Top Political Contributors
August 11, 2011
Gender and the New Commanding Heights
August 11, 2011
Jamie Galbraith Makes an Assumption
August 11, 2011
Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris
August 10, 2011
Real and Nominal Bond Yields
BRYAN CAPLAN
August 14, 2011
The Effect of Thumb Sucking on Income
August 12, 2011
The Voice of Cold, Hard Truth to All Would-Be Educators
August 12, 2011
Ability, Morality, and Prosperity: A Paper and a Report
August 11, 2011
The Theory of Time and Frittering
August 10, 2011
Male Variance and the Remnants of the Gender Gap
DAVID HENDERSON
August 9, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken", Part Two
August 8, 2011
Hayek in "Unbroken"
August 5, 2011
James Bovard on the Peace Corps
August 4, 2011
Summers Way Off on FDR and 1941
August 3, 2011
The "Amazon" Tax
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My money would be on Ron Paul for 2012
Maybe what we really need is a strong Republican congress, coupled with a Democratic president. Call me Madisonian.
libfree, I agree. Gridlock is the best form of government we can hope for. I'm confident Obama will be re-elected in 2012. The Repubs will take Congress this Fall and usher in gridlock. As a result, the economy will do so well that by 2012 Obama will win easily.
An econ prof at the Univ of Central Oklahoma has a model that has been very successful at predicting presidential elections. He has just one predictor variable - gdp growth in the second quarter of the election year. If gdp grows 2.5% or more in the second quarter of 2012, Obama will will easily.
In most circumstances, I would agree on split government. Reagan, Bush 41, and Clinton all had good runs with opposition Congresses.
The Republicans seemed to go a bit beyond the pale this past year, though. I'm still stinging about the "death panels" stuff. And I have yet to decide if the Tea Party would be a moderating or intensifying influence.
@Dan Weber
I prefer the extremists fighting stuff out. When moderates get in charge they tend to pass lots of stuff and ruin any hope of gridlock.
I'm not so sure. In the 90's, Newt Gingrich balanced the budget, but Clinton got the credit for it. (They did give Gingrich credit for shutting down the government.)
Do you think there's a Republican in the House that wants to do that again?
Oh, boy. Your probabilities rate the French model 2-4 times as likely a Regan-esque president and you call that optimism?
As I mention here, the gap in employment/population ratios between the US and EU (including France, which seems to be the perennial target) has virtually disappeared over the past 15 years. So, assuming similar macro experience, I expect similar rates of unemployment.
How long have we had job creation with no change in the unemployment figures? It's beginning to smell of structural change to me.