I made a bet with Iain Murray, a delightful guy from the Competitive Enterprise Institute with whom I spoke at a big Hillsdale College event in Atlanta today. We were both speakers on the program. He told me he expected a bunch of countries to drop the Euro as their currency by March 2013. "Which ones," I asked. "Spain, Italy, and Greece," he answered. So we made a bet. I bet him that that won't happen. If even one of those countries doesn't leave, I win.
I remember Milton Friedman saying that when he looked back at his predictions, he had almost always been right about the direction and almost always wrong about the timing. He had always predicted that changes would happen more quickly than they did. That's what I think Iain did. It's what I did back in 2001 when I bet an official from Austria's central bank that at least one country would have left the Euro by 2006.