The Truck Driver Puzzle

Arnold,

I'm shocked you didn't mention what seems to me the most likely explanation of a shortage (combined with extensive long-term unemployment insurance, of course...). I believe truck driving is a licensed profession. You have to invest several months and likely tens of thousands of dollars to get the professional license needed to drive a truck. This is a significant barrier to entry, especially for those who otherwise might strongly consider this job/lifestyle. The WSJ indicated in a front-page article earlier this year that 23% of all jobs in the USA are licensed in this fashion, requiring government,not merely consumer, authorization to ply one's trade. See: Commercial Driver's License at Wikipedia.

In a related blog post somewhere, seemingly informed commenters said there is regularly a shortage of truck drivers because most applicants are simply not reliable: they fail drug tests, they show up late, they quit, etc.

The pool of reliable potential applicants would rather take up other jobs. A labor economist could better explain why the market doesn't clear: maybe a compensating differentials story (the trucker lifestyle is tough and not conducive to family life); or a status story (being a trucker is more difficult than people think, and the Mother-in-law does not appreciate that it is a solid job), etc.

Link at end of comment didn't appear. I used the link button, so I don't know why it didn't appear.

The link is to Wikipedia's entry on "Commercial Driver's License"

[Fixed. Link buttons are always a little trickier to use than other buttons, which is why we offer instructions and more info. The easiest way to use them is to first type the words you want the reader to see--in this case, say, Commercial Driver's License. Next, run your cursor over those words to highlight those words in your browser. Finally, after the words are highlighted, then click the link button. The button response will then ask you for the URL to which the reader should be sent. Paste in the URL and hit Return. You can check it in the Preview before you Post a comment. The way you typed it, the Preview would not have shown the link, which would have been a helpful warning that the posted comment wouldn't have shown the link, either. It's kind of like when medical, pill-taking patients don't cotton to having to remove the cotton. To take a pill from a pill bottle: Step one: Read the label and open the pill bottle. Follow all instructions, including if you should eat beforehand or walk afterward. Step two: locate the cotton or any other drying agents. Discard or handle them per instructions. If the instructions say you should take the pill with juice or food, be prepared to do that. Step three: fish out and swallow the pill. And later follow up by checking that you swallowed it accordingly and that there is one less pill in the bottle.--Econlib Ed.]

I'd also suggest that if there is a shortage, it is partly related to the fact that jobs for truck drivers tend to be in areas where people may not want to live or easily be able to move. E.g. as I understand it there are large areas of North Dakota where one can find a high 5-figure salary driving a truck (and they'll pay to get you licensed). But, you have to live in North Dakota, and because it's a boomtown, you can't find an apartment or house within 50 miles of your employer's home base. You also may be doing over-the-road trucking which has you away from family for weeks at a time.

People are moving there in droves though (see: no housing in a 50 mile radius), so you may be right that the jobs will be filled.

It's 2 through 5 plus the costs noted above.

Some amount of ongoing random drug testing is required. Regulators periodically give grades on the state of equipment which the driver can get dinged for.

The job is by nature high stress in that people are paid by the mile (or by the load which is similar) but have speeds and working times severly limited by regulations. So it can be a lot of hassle for the level of pay.

Further, it's not just "away from home", it's "away from home at truck stops and sleeping in the sleeper cab".

Plus the cost of diesel means not a lot of money left at the end of the month. Just one fill up is comparable to some of those low down payments in the recent go-go days of housing.

I'm not sure how much an impact it's had, but the new CSA 2010 rules may have invalidated a number of drivers with poor safety records.

Arnold, When you talk of the AS/AD paradigm of homogeneous labor, you are actually criticizing a specific version of AS/AD, which assumes a completely flat SRAS curve. I happen to like the AS/AD model, but I also think the flat AS curve is preposterous, partly because it relies on the unrealistic assumption of homogenous labor. I assume the SRAS curve is upward-sloping.

I saw an interview on Bloomberg TV last week with an equity analyst who attended that conference. He said the managements attributed the driver shortage entirely to the extended duration of unemployment insurance.

I don't know if this alters your perception, but "truck driver" is a very broad category. There are many sought-after subcategories, such as "owner-driver" and "husband-wife team". These attributes require far more investment and commitment than "truck driver", so (presumably) take on more risk, are rarer, and make more money.