Arnold Kling  

Betting Indicators

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Michael Greve on Fiscal Federa... Per Request: Podcasts...

Bryan writes,


Arnold, would you care to bet that the number of full-time faculty of traditional 4-year colleges will decline by more than 10% by 2022? Something else?

I'd prefer to stretch out the time frame at least a few years. Maybe let's pick 5 indicators, and winning means at least 3 out of 5. Some possibilities:

In real terms, total compensation of tenured faculty at GMU will be lower in 2025 than in 2012.

Between now and 2025, at least 2 of the current top 200 private colleges and universities will either fold, merge with a healthier institution for financial reasons, or be taken over by the state.

By 2025, at least 5 percent of high school seniors in Charles Murray's Superzips (elite zip codes) will be planning to obtain an alternative certificate of higher education rather than a traditional college degree.


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