Making Taleb's Point

yeah, that would make sense until you take it a bit further and argue that humans shouldn't take medicine beacuse bacteria and viruses can evolve resistance to them.

taleb actually made that point on a previous episode of econtalk, and that's when i stopped considering him as a serious thinker

From what I understand, there is no threat to people from unvaccinated livestock - the threat is to profitability of the farmers. Livestock that is not vaccinated can get sick (longer time to slaughter, less eggs, etc.) or die.

I think this overuse of antibiotics is more of an American problem. But this is just an anecdote so take it with a grain of salt.

"Taleb actually made that point on a previous episode of econtalk, and that's when i stopped considering him as a serious thinker"
Right. I think it is a pretty common fact among medical experts that overuse of antibiotics causes antibiotics-resistant bacteria. So by your definition, people who don't believe that are not serious thinkers? Taleb has pretty good track record of insights, can you say the same?

Overprotection from minor viruses is a great example of antifragility. Usually I avoid taking aspirin if I have a fever unless it becomes unbearable.

I believe that farmers use the antibiotics to increase livestock density, not at the behest of the FDA for consumer's safety.

So this is more a case in point of you demonstrating something from the Kahneman book.

JCE,

I think you misinterpreted Taleb's view of medicine...

Taleb is saying that it is a mistake to pursue a single strategy of risk management. I think the best analogy is from The Princess Bride.

Currrent risk managers are like Vizzini looking only at the cup in front of them and thinking only in one direction to minimize the risk of taking Iocaine powder. All their logic is useless: Taleb says develop an immunity.