Bryan Caplan  

Licensing and the Return to Education

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Private sector unions have almost disappeared, but occupational licensing is all the rage.  Almost 30% of all workers need a license to do their jobs - and licensed workers earn roughly a 15% wage premium.

Occupational credentials are one common licensing requirement.  According to this working paper by Kleiner and Krueger, 43% of all licensed workers are required to have a college degree.  This is consistent with one of Arnold's favorite alternatives to the signaling model: Employers value degrees in useless subjects because they're legally required to do so.

Still, the question remains: How much of the return to education is a disguised licensing premium?  Kleiner and Krueger create a brand new data set that allows them to directly answer this question.  Even though they find a large licensing premium, they conclude that licensing only mildly inflates the return to education.  Their results:

licensing.jpg

The first two columns show standard return to education estimates.  Ignoring licensing, a year of schooling appears to boost your earnings by 10.9%.  Adjusting for licensing, a year of schooling appears to boost your earnings by 10.5% - .4 percentage-points less.  Columns 3 and 4 measure education with degrees instead of years and re-estimate.  Once again, the coefficient on education changes in the expected direction, but only a little bit.

I freely admit that licensing isn't the only way that government can artificially inflate the demand for useless degrees.  Government pay scales are another plausible candidate.  But still, given the prevalence of licensing and the substantial licensing premium, I would have expected a larger effect.


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COMMENTS (5 to date)
Jose writes:

The case is especially problematic when inorder to obtain a license i.e. Series 7, one needs to be sponsored by some firm to even sit for the exam.

HispanicPundit writes:

Curious, did you have Krueger as your professor at Princeton? How was he? I know he is liberal, but any personality traits, or academic perks, you can share that might be interesting? He is in the spotlight more lately.

GregS writes:

The caption says there is a control for "work experience squared." Do you know anything about this? Are there economic theories to explain why there is a squared term for work experience? A post on that topic would be interesting.

Bill Hocter writes:

Perhaps some degrees are more useful than they appear. Carl Icahn majored in philosophy. I've never regretted my Classical Greek major.

Eric Evans writes:

Oh boy, statistics inferred from a phone survey? That's the bees knees for reliability. Whatever you can call good data and plug into an equation for analysis, huh?

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