I'll take the bet (first form), not because I have any particular
expertise or strong concern about ebola. (I do not believe closing US
borders is justified by the threat, and wouldn't even if we knew 300
resultant deaths were a certainty.) But I am sceptical of some of the
comforting assumptions of your mainstream scientists...
I acknowledge my reputation is insufficient to give you confidence in
repayment, therefore I propose to transfer $100 to you on your
acceptance. If you win the bet, you need never repay it. If you lose
the bet you transfer me $251 in January 2018. (Or suggest your own
estimate for the future value of the 2x$100 - which would be worth
hearing in itself. :)
Troy's payment proposal seems fair enough to me. Troy, please email me and I'll send you my address or Paypal info.
You win $30 if by January 1, 2018 Ebola has killed less than ten
thousand people in the United States. I win $3,000 if by January 1,
2018 Ebola has killed ten thousand or more people in the United States.
To avoid bad publicity if I win pay the money to one of the top
Givewell charities. If you win I will pay you directly. I offer you
this bet for 48 hours.
I'll offer you $1000 against your $30, James. Interested?
Last, what appears to be a hypothetical bet rather than an offer: