Bryan Caplan  

I Win My Bush-Trump Bet with Tim Kane

Uber for welfare?... Teaching to the Test Bleg...
Right before Halloween, I bet Tim Kane $20 at even odds that Bush would drop out of the election before Trump.  And so he has.  All praise to Tim for his continuing willingness to bet his beliefs!

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COMMENTS (2 to date)
Jon Murphy writes:

Congrats on your win. I would have thought for sure Trump would be falling out of favor once the voting actually started. Boy was I wrong.

I also said Sanders wouldn't finish above 3rd in the Democratic Primary.

I shouldn't bet on elections after this year...

Yaakov writes:

I do not bet, but am well aware and make public that I am very bad at predictions. I meticulously followed the polls for the Israel elections over several rounds of elections and accordingly predicted that in 2006 the elections would be 5-7 mandates off from the predictions of the polls. I was wrong. For the first time I remember, the polls got the results accurately in 2006.

In 2015, I told my wife that the after voting polls announced immediately after the ballots are closed, are always accurate and accordingly said that the results will not be substantially different. I was wrong. For the first time I remember in Israel, the polls were off by a relatively large margin.

Predicting election results is very tricky. I do not have the skills required.

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