Bryan Caplan  

I Win My Bush-Trump Bet with Tim Kane

PRINT
Uber for welfare?... Teaching to the Test Bleg...
Right before Halloween, I bet Tim Kane $20 at even odds that Bush would drop out of the election before Trump.  And so he has.  All praise to Tim for his continuing willingness to bet his beliefs!


Comments and Sharing






COMMENTS (2 to date)
Jon Murphy writes:

Congrats on your win. I would have thought for sure Trump would be falling out of favor once the voting actually started. Boy was I wrong.

I also said Sanders wouldn't finish above 3rd in the Democratic Primary.

I shouldn't bet on elections after this year...

Yaakov writes:

I do not bet, but am well aware and make public that I am very bad at predictions. I meticulously followed the polls for the Israel elections over several rounds of elections and accordingly predicted that in 2006 the elections would be 5-7 mandates off from the predictions of the polls. I was wrong. For the first time I remember, the polls got the results accurately in 2006.

In 2015, I told my wife that the after voting polls announced immediately after the ballots are closed, are always accurate and accordingly said that the results will not be substantially different. I was wrong. For the first time I remember in Israel, the polls were off by a relatively large margin.

Predicting election results is very tricky. I do not have the skills required.

Comments for this entry have been closed
Return to top