Bryan Caplan  

Brexit Bet Comment

A few thoughts in the immediat... Hanson's Predictions: A 5-Page...
Mark Steyn seems to be declaring victory on our bet.  I now think he will win, but the terms are not yet satisfied.  As I stated last week, I will happily pay as soon as the British Parliament votes for unilateral exit or the European Union officially removes Great Britain as a member.

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COMMENTS (11 to date)
Colombo writes:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that you didn't agree explicitly the medium of payment. I take that betting $100 means betting the worth of $100 at the moment the bet took place, not $100 worth of USD currency at the moment the bet ended.
Mr. Caplan, at this point would you rather pay in FRN or in bitcoin?
And what would Mr. Steyn prefer?

Had I lost the bet I would try to minimize my loss by finding the best money possible for that. Had I won the bet, I would demand a worthwhile money.

patrick neid writes:

Sounds like some one trying to chisel. You lost. The fact that some sleazy politicians may try to over ride the vote does not change the nature of the original bet. Politicians ignoring the voters is routine. Just be happy you didn't accept his offer to make it a grand.

Jon Murphy writes:


You'll notice that Dr Caplan specifically stated these terms. He's reiterating it, not "trying to chisel."

Jon Murphy writes:

Unfortunately, Dr. Caplan, I've already lost. Had a small bet in the office about which way the vote would go. The one guy who said "Brexit" is much wealthier today :-)

John Smith writes:

The bet was on whether Britain leaves, not whether Britain intends to leave. Bryan's terms are entirely reasonable. You haven't left if your foot still hasn't left the door.

Tim Richards writes:

What a surprise!

You thought you made the safest of safe bets and you lost. You know you've lost. Just pay up and at least lose with some dignity.

You're not alone, Doc. Plenty of your fellow "experts" got it wrong. Suck it up. The 52%, and Steyn, have won.

Be a man, Doc. $100 should brexit your wallet TODAY.

Robert writes:

The British Parliament voting to leave isn't enough. It's article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty being triggered that counts. A vote in Parliament cannot do this. The Lisbon Treaty is an international treaty and these are made and unmade using the Royal Prerogative, which is exercised by government ministers on behalf of The Crown.

Brian writes:

As indicated by Robert, Bryan loses his bet when the next Prime Minister invokes article 50, and not a moment earlier or later. Bryan's conditions for fulfilling the bet are not relevant because they play no role in the Brexit process.

David R. Henderson writes:

As one of the people with $100 at stake on the bet--I bet against Bryan--I agree with Bryan that he has not lost yet. I expect he will, but much more has to happen before he does.

KT Cat writes:

This doesn't seem to have made you reconsider your thinking at all. It's not that you lost the bet it's that he was able to predict the future better using a different set of values. $100 seems like a cheap education if you take the time to learn from it.

David R. Henderson writes:

@KT Cat,
This doesn't seem to have made you reconsider your thinking at all.
How could you possibly know that? I’m guessing you don’t know Bryan. He was considering the narrow issue of whether he lost the bet. He stated that he hasn’t lost yet but expects to. Who knows what he has learned or hasn’t? Certainly not you.
It's not that you lost the bet it's that he was able to predict the future better using a different set of values.
If you follow Bryan’s bets, you realize that he doesn’t make them based on his values. I have values very similar to Bryan’s and the reason I was on the other side of this bet had nothing to do with values, as that word is normally used.

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