Bryan Caplan  

One Last Election Bet

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Today at lunch, I bet Nathaniel Bechhofer $50 at even odds that Trump will not officially concede the election by Saturday, November 12, at 12:01 AM Eastern Standard time.  I win if there's no concession by that time; Nathaniel wins otherwise.

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COMMENTS (13 to date)
Bill writes:

Nice. If Trump does not concede because he wins, do you still get the $50?

Scott Sumner writes:

That's a rare case where I think you'll lose.

Jeff G. writes:

I would take the same side but can you explain why you took that position?

Michael writes:

agree wit Scott. What happened to why you win your bets

[Broken HTML fixed. --Econlib Ed.]

Peter H writes:

Smart bet. There's no such thing as "officially" conceding an election, so you virtually can't lose if you're very pedantic about it.

If you're not being pedantic and want to offer Nathaniel a fair bet, I'd make it contingent on a public address where he describes Clinton as the "President-elect" or congratulates her on having been elected.

Philo writes:

What did prompt you to make this bet (other than your personal insight into Trumpian psychology)?

Andrew_FL writes:

@Philo-He's kinda telegraphed that he may?

I think Bryan is making one of his rare risky bets, betting against the majority of historical precedent, which is usually the opposite of what he'd do.

I'll say that if ever there was a candidate who would break with the majority of historical precedent, it would be Trump.

(I assume they're both confident the result will not be close, as, in the event that the election came down to a small number of votes, the loser would arguably be justified in contesting the results)

(Note that, in 2012, Florida's vote count was not official until November 20th)

Also I just realized that if Trump wins, Bryan wins his bet by the wording. Intentional?

Thomas writes:

There's roughly a 30% chance that Trump wins, so this is a bet that, in the other cases (70%), a little less than a third of the outcomes involve Trump refusing to concede by Saturday. Not a crazy bet.

Phil writes:

I'd be curious as to whether you explain you logic with the people you bet with prior to making it

Did Nathaniel Bechhofer have access to the full extent of the logic behind your thinking about the bet, prior to agreeing to it?

Mark Bahner writes:
Nice. If Trump does not concede because he wins, do you still get the $50?

Yes, here's one definition of "concede":

admit that something is true or valid after first denying or resisting it

If he wins, it seems to me he absolutely does "concede." He'll of course say the election was fair if he wins. So I think Bryan loses if Trump wins.

Mark writes:

You won!

austrartsua writes:

Lol. The irony!

phil writes:

well done, you had this pegged better than I did

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