Bryan Caplan  

The Full Hanson-Caplan Robot Debate

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Two weeks ago, I debated Robin Hanson on, "Robots will eventually dominate the world and eliminate human abilities to earn wages."  Here's the full debate!




COMMENTS (2 to date)
Mark Bahner writes:

Hi Bryan,

A wonderful debate! My compliments to you and Robin. You both were excellent.

Of course, I think you're both wrong. I think computers/robots will be able to do just about everything humans can do...and not in more than 100 years, but before the middle of this century.

At about 18 minutes, Robin asks you what you think that humans can do that computers won't ever be able to do, and you respond with, "come up with an original argument" and "come up with original music."

Let me ask a follow-up question. Here's a list of the top 15 jobs in the U.S.

I think tractor trailer drivers, cashiers, material movers (e.g., loading dock workers), and retail salespeople are extremely vulnerable to AI, such that approximately 3/4ths or more of the jobs in those job categories will be gone in the next 30 years, due to AI. Do you think that's likely, unlikely, very unlikely, virtually impossible...?

If more than 3/4ths of the jobs in the top 15 job categories are gone in the next 30 years, doesn't that seem like a huge deal to you?

Mark Bahner writes:

Oops. That last question should have been (correction in bold):

If more than 3/4ths of the jobs in four of the top 15 job categories are gone in the next 30 years, doesn't that seem like a huge deal to you?
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