|
Economic Methods
A Category Archive (311 entries)
|
|
February 9, 2012
Economics of Education
Arnold Kling
From Richard Arum and others. They find that employment outcomes of college graduates are positively related to student performance on the Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA). Who cares?. As Bryan points out, this sort of study confounds ability with learning, which... MORE
January 31, 2012
Economics of Education
Bryan Caplan
Arnold counter-offers to my proposed education bet. Arnold's in blockquotes.I'd prefer to stretch out the time frame at least a few years. Maybe let's pick 5 indicators, and winning means at least 3 out of 5.Fair enough, though it does... MORE
Economics of Education
Bryan Caplan
I've already bet David Henderson that the percent of 18-24 year-olds in traditional 4-year colleges will decline no more than 10% by 2019. Now Arnold tempts me to double down:I see the potential for a dramatic reduction in the labor... MORE
January 24, 2012
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
David Colander writes, not only are economists as a group not humble enough, what lay people are presented as economist's policy recommendations are often the policy recommendations of the least humble economist. In summary, my argument is that lack of... MORE
January 23, 2012
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In 2009, I bet John Quiggin that Europe's unemployment would average at least 1.5 percentage-points higher than the United States over the following decade. Quiggin's update:Until now, I've been consistently ahead. EU-15 and US unemployment rates were very close during... MORE
January 19, 2012
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Paul Krugman writes, doesn't this [the Internet] allow a lot of really bad economics to circulate? Yes, but is it really any worse than it used to be? As I've tried to explain, the notion of journals as gatekeepers was... MORE
January 13, 2012
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Since junior high, I've believed that the galaxy is full of planets and intelligent life. But it wasn't until I was in my thirties that I heard of the Fermi Paradox. You can boil the paradox down to a sentence:... MORE
January 11, 2012
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A Chronicle of Higher Education article: The role of economics blogs started changing noticeably around 2008, said Alex Tabarrok, an associate professor of economics at George Mason University. Before then, blogs were expected to be clever and entertaining, and little... MORE
January 7, 2012
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Ryan Avent writes, The discussion is not always polite. It is interesting and enlightening, however. And it disciplines participating thinkers in a way that few other mediums manage. I have just started reading David Weinberger's new book, Too Big to... MORE
December 23, 2011
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
Scott Sumner writes, Now here's one of the most striking facts about US business cycles. When the unemployment rate does rise by more than 0.6%, it keeps going up and up and up. With the exception of the 1959 steel... MORE
December 9, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Some comments on an earlier post raised a number of issues. 1. Shouldn't the economy just have stayed on its production possibility curve in 1929, rather than go through the Depression? Well, the problem is if it stays on the... MORE
December 6, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I recently came across Where Did Economics Go Wrong? Modern Economics as a Flight From Reality, published by Pete Boettke in Critical Review. Looking at its themes, you can see issues that I have dwelt on considerably on this blog.... MORE
November 17, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
From the Chronicle of Higher Education:The discovery that the Dutch researcher Diederik A. Stapel made up the data for dozens of research papers has shaken up the field of social psychology, fueling a discussion not just about outright fraud, but... MORE
October 25, 2011
Economics of Education
Bryan Caplan
Mark Little proposes an interesting bet in the comments:Bryan, I will not take your bet but will offer you the opposite one--that the proportion will be not less that 10% HIGHER. I believe that your signalling theory is correct, but... MORE
October 24, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
David Henderson nobly expresses interest in my proposed bet:I might take that bet. But I don't believe on betting on a change in a number without having a good idea of what the number is now. Please tell me the... MORE
October 20, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
When I received Kahneman's Thinking: Fast and Slow, I opened to a random page, and found a big error:The idea that large historical events are determined by luck is profoundly shocking, although it is demonstrably true. It is hard to... MORE
October 13, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Some thoughts, beyond my reaction of "eh." 1. Since their work became widely circulated, one can argue plausibly that 99 percent of all macroeconomics papers published, dissertations completed, and tenure decisions awarded have been in the mold of Sargent, Sims,... MORE
October 10, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen tells you about Sargent and Sims. My reaction is, "eh." Sort of like Bert Blyleven. Star players, but not historically important, unless you're from Minnesota.... MORE
October 5, 2011
Economic History
David Henderson
I woke up in Turkey at 4:00 a.m. Thursday, went to my computer, and found out that Steve Jobs had died. I titled this post as I did because "insanely great" was the term Jobs loved to use to discuss... MORE
September 29, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Eliezer Yudkowsky:There are large numbers of embarrassing people who believe in flying saucers, but this cannot possibly be Bayesian evidence against the presence of aliens, unless you believe that aliens would suppress flying-saucer cults, so that we are less likely... MORE
September 24, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I'm no sports fan, but as a betting man, Moneyball intrigued me. I thought the ending dragged, but the peaks were high. My favorite (from the shooting script, so the final scene may be a little different):BILLY:Grady, you don't have... MORE
September 20, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
The world is full of confident people. Despite their confidence, it's usually hard to make them bet on their beliefs - and even harder to make them bet at worse-than-even odds. In one of my all-time-favorite posts by Robin Hanson,... MORE
September 19, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
My latest essay. the Congressional Budget Office can reasonably estimate the effect of economic and policy scenarios on components of the government's budget, including taxes and spending. However, it cannot reasonably estimate the effect of tax and spending changes on... MORE
September 11, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
On the Internet, it is easy to find the John Kenneth Galbraith quip, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." Does anyone have a genuine citation for it? A page number somewhere? Anyway, they're back... MORE
September 1, 2011
Behavioral Economics and Rationality
Arnold Kling
Frances Woolley writes, Once you fall down the rabbit hole, you just have to keep on going. If people's choices are not a reliable guide to their well-being, you have to turn to something else. Ask people how happy they... MORE
August 26, 2011
Family Economics
Bryan Caplan
The latest Slate features a new critique of twin studies by Brian Palmer, entitled "Double Inanity: Twin Studies Are Pretty Much Useless." Palmer starts with the standard guilt-by-association critique: Galton, the founder of twin studies, "coined the term 'eugenics' and... MORE
August 25, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Paul Rosenberg writes, But when she turned to private discussions with 21 leading progressive economists, she was delighted to find a much more coherent use of one particular metaphor. The dominant metaphor in public discourse is a conservative one -... MORE
August 11, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
That is my paper in Critical Review, which has a number of papers that I am eager to read. This is the paper where I tear apart the macroeconometric models used to estimate the effects of fiscal stimulus. This is... MORE
July 25, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Nick Rowe writes, the answer to the question "what is the effect of a 1% increase in perceived risk on government bonds?" is exactly the same as the answer to the question "what is the effect of a 1% increase... MORE
July 8, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
You can now vote in Leah Libresco's religious Turing Test. Anyone care to predict the results? Propose a bet?Update: I just voted. Overall, amazingly credible answers - I suspect Leah is drawing heavily from ultra-sophisticated Ivy League Christians. The main... MORE
July 7, 2011
Economic Philosophy
Bryan Caplan
Leah Libresco is moving forward with her proposed religious Turing Test - and she'd appreciate your comments on her draft. Stay tuned for the result.... MORE
July 6, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
John Caskey writes In an ideal experiment, one would randomly grant payday loans to a group of applicants and randomly deny the loans as well as close substitutes to a similar group of applicants. One would then track indicators of... MORE
July 5, 2011
Economic Philosophy
Bryan Caplan
I often annoy other economists by giving advice. "Economists are supposed to describe behavior, not change it," they insist. But they couldn't be more wrong. Economics is inherently advisory. Anytime an economist notices a discrepancy between (a) the world as... MORE
June 29, 2011
Economics of Education
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen raises a good argument about the signaling model. Education is good for more than getting a good first job offer right off the bat. Presumably, relying on education as a signal causes firms to make mistakes when they... MORE
June 28, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen rejoins the debate on the returns-to-schooling literature. What's striking about the work surveyed by Card is how many different methods are used and how consistent their results are. You can knock down any one of them ("are identical... MORE
June 27, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen writes, The view that education is mostly about signaling is inconsistent with the established consensus on the returns to schooling and yet the writers at EconLog do not respond to this literature or, as far as I can... MORE
June 26, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
David Leonhardt writes, Construction workers, police officers, plumbers, retail salespeople and secretaries, among others, make significantly more with a degree than without one. Why? Education helps people do higher-skilled work, get jobs with better-paying companies or open their own businesses.... MORE
Economic Philosophy
Bryan Caplan
I bet I would do relatively well on ideological Turing Tests. But whenever I say the words "I bet," my mind starts to imagine losing scenarios. If someone wanted to make me fail an ideological Turing Test, what kinds of... MORE
June 23, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Leah Anthony Libresco is looking for partners and judges for an ideological Turing Test on Christianity and atheism:I'd like to put my money where my mouth is and play in an ideological Turing Test against a Christian blogger. We could... MORE
Economic Philosophy
Bryan Caplan
1. DeLong pretends to be Nozickian.2. I pretend to be conservative. Give me more examples of attempts to pass Ideological Turing Tests in the comments; I'll link to them.... MORE
June 20, 2011
Economic Philosophy
Bryan Caplan
In a Turing Test, a computer tries to pass for human:A human judge engages in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each emulating human responses. All participants are separated from one another. If the judge cannot... MORE
June 14, 2011
Economics of Health Care
Arnold Kling
In this interview, he says, If you had a certain condition and you had $10,000 to get treated at today's health prices, or $10,000 to get treated at 1960s prices with 1960s technology, I don't think it's so obvious that... MORE
June 10, 2011
Growth: Consequences
Arnold Kling
Richard Florida weighs in. The returns to analytical skill rise consistently across the skill distribution; moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile increases earnings by more than $25,000. The same basic pattern holds for social intelligence skills, like teamwork,... MORE
June 4, 2011
Economic Methods
David Henderson
I'm at a weekend conference in Indianapolis that started last night and goes through tonight. About 14 people, roughly evenly split between philosophers and economists, are working our way through Amartya Sen's The Idea of Justice. One of the things... MORE
May 25, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
He wrote, Name the most credible measure of idea production that isn't at least moderately positively correlated with population. I think this is a somewhat imprecise formulation. First of all, "moderately positive" is vague. It could be a very low... MORE
May 23, 2011
Family Economics
Bryan Caplan
Today I learned that I (partly) inspired a charming parenting experiment. British journalist Lucy Cavendish: There are various blogs and websites devoted to the notion that we should give our children free choice, and, in this way, encourage their development... MORE
May 15, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
My father always said that there were three iron laws of social science. 1. Sometimes it's this way, and sometimes it's that way. 2. The data are insufficient. 3. The methodology is flawed. On politically sensitive topics, the tendency is... MORE
April 28, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Will Wilkinson writes (on Facebook), Tell me what you think about the usefulness/uselessness of 10-year budget/deficit projections. You can think of this as three questions. 1. Are the projections useful? I think they are useful if understood as conditional forecasts.... MORE
April 26, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Two interesting examples. 1. John Taylor attempts to take on Krulong. He writes, For all of 2007, spending was 19.6 percent of GDP. For all of 2021--after the impacts of the recession and the final year of the budget window--the... MORE
April 19, 2011
Macroeconomics
Bryan Caplan
Home prices did amazingly well during the Great Depression. According to Schiller's index, it looks likes inflation-adjusted prices fell from about 74 to 69 between 1929 and 1933 - about a 7% decline. By 1940, they were up to about... MORE
April 6, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A review copy of Markets on Trial: The Economic Sociology of the US Financial Crisis, edited by Michael Lounsbury and Paul M. Hirsch. One of the essays, by Ezra Zuckerman, says, sociologists' opposition to neoclassical economics generally, and to the... MORE
April 1, 2011
Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings
Arnold Kling
I continue to read The Blind Spot, by William Byers. On p. 137-138, he writes, Until recently, the conventional scientific view was that mind could be reduced to brain, that the physical brain was primary phenomenon and the mind was... MORE
March 23, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Back in 2008, I made the following bet:If the Director of the OMB's 2013 report says that a shortfall exists, I win. Otherwise, I lose. The stakes: I will make up to five $100 bets at even odds.Now it seems... MORE
March 9, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen makes up long lists of the blind spots of left-leaning economists and right-leaning economists. If I were asked this question, I would boil my answers down to one suggestion for each. What I think left-leaning economists should do... MORE
March 4, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
When I started my Ph.D. in Princeton, pure economic theory was king. Economists with stellar math skills were high in status and high in demand, even if their knowledge of the real world was... slight. In the following eighteen years,... MORE
March 2, 2011
Cross-country Comparisons
Bryan Caplan
One good way to guard against hidesight bias is to publicly state your odds in advance. The Iranian Revolution, for example, spurred a wave of cock-eyed optimism around the world. But before long, theocracy and bloody warfare left Iran in... MORE
Finance: stocks, options, etc.
Arnold Kling
As usual, Mark Thoma has interesting links for today. 1. Ken Rogoff writes, Many countries' tax systems hugely favor debt over equity. The housing boom in the United States might never have reached the proportions that it did if homeowners... MORE
March 1, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Consider the following two propositions, one in education (E) and one in finance (F). (E) One way to improve education would be to get rid of the bottom 10 percent of teachers and to try to replicate more widely the... MORE
February 17, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Which of the following impediments to economic adjustment do you believe to be the most important? a) the cost of establishing a new enterprise b) the cost of integrating new workers and equipment into an existing enterprise c) the cost... MORE
January 22, 2011
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
When I denounce Hayek's heinous writing style, many libertarians retort that Mises was even worse. Their claim baffles me. Yes, you can fault Mises' organization; do you really want to begin your treatise on economics with 89 pages of Kantian... MORE
January 11, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Since I brought up the topic, a commenter pointed me to the Wikipedia article on complexity in economics, and that in turn referred to David Colander. [complexity theory] is highly mathematical, and, as I stated above, accepts the need for... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Joe Keohane writes about Nouriel Roubini, For a prophet, he's wrong an awful lot of the time. In October 2008, he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds were on the verge of failure and that the government would have to... MORE
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
In an interview, Ben Ramalin says, We treat complex things as if they were merely complicated... distinguished between complicated systems, which can be modeled mathematically, and complex systems, for which there is no mathematical model which can say, if X... MORE
January 8, 2011
Economic Philosophy
Bryan Caplan
Tyler (via Ken Feinstein) says I should raise my opinion of Kant. After reading this paragraph, I can only say: Done!The usual touchstone of whether what someone asserts is mere persuasion or at least a subjective conviction, i.e., firm belief,... MORE
January 3, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
There has been much discussion of late of a code of ethics for economists, with a focus on disclosing personal interests. I would go in a different direction. My code of ethics would consist of one line: Take into account... MORE
January 2, 2011
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Robin Hanson cites one paper that says that higher unemployment reduces mortality, perhaps because of healthier eating, while another paper says that higher unemployment reduces the consumption of fruits and vegetables. He writes, Either we can cross "eat healthier" off... MORE
December 31, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Almost four years ago, I made the following bet with Jeremy Rabkin: If France, Germany, and Italy remain on the Euro as of December 31, 2010, Rabkin owes me $20. Otherwise, I owe him $20.I win.... MORE
December 30, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In response to my remarks about conservative passion, Heritage's Conn Carroll proposes a fairly attractive bet: Here is the bet: Identify the three highest rated conservative talk show hosts (I think its Limbaugh, Hannity, and Beck). Pick three random shows from each... MORE
December 28, 2010
Austrian Economics
Arnold Kling
On my post on Pete Boettke's podcast, a commenter wrote, The big thing now is combining institutional economics with general equilibrium analysis. This is what Daron Acemoglu has been doing for the last decade now. Which is obviously the way... MORE
December 27, 2010
Economics of Education
Arnold Kling
Megan McArdle has a long post on the issue of measuring teacher quality. Meanwhile, The New York Times profiles James Heckman, whose careful research suggests that by the time a child reaches school age it is too late to make... MORE
December 14, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
My favorite section in Diane Coyle's The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters tries to figure out why economics enrages as often as it bores:Mechanical, mathematical, removed from the "real world," reductionist, autistic - why do... MORE
December 12, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
From the Recommendations for Further Reading column by Timothy Taylor in the Journal of Economic Perspectives fall issue. I eagerly look forward to this regular feature, which was started by the late Bernie Saffran, the beloved Swarthmore economics professor. My... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Let me follow up on this post. I try to drill into my high school students that in classical statistics we make probability statements about our methods, not about the unknown real-world parameters. (I can't believe what I first wrote... MORE
December 11, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Jonah Lehrer writes, The therapeutic power of the drugs appeared to be steadily falling. A recent study showed an effect that was less than half of that documented in the first trials, in the early nineties. The article is interesting,... MORE
December 6, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
When I wrote that rational expectations was a theory Y, a commenter asked me to explain rational expectations. I will do so below the fold.... MORE
December 5, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Nick Rowe writes, Then theory Y suddenly appears. Theory Y is new, and has lots of unexplored areas that you have the skills to work on. You don't believe in theory Y, but you could make a useful contribution to... MORE
November 28, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Below, I elaborate on two claims. 1. Macroeconometrics requires the imposition of prior beliefs. 2. If one has diffuse prior beliefs, the correct macroeconomic policies are not easily formulated.... MORE
November 26, 2010
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
According to Prad Krulong, macroeconomists had it and then lost it. They lost it some time after 1970. We had this magic formula, call it M70, and somehow we let it slip from our collective memory. But what was M70?... MORE
November 24, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In the comments, rapscallion poses an interesting challenge:The bets I've seen placed on this site are so small in value that they don't tell me much other than that none of the bloggers believe in anything with much certainty. A... MORE
November 23, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Today I cashed my victory check from my election bet with Arnold Kling. Now it's time to honor him. Not only did my esteemed co-blogger promptly pay up; he had the courage and honesty to publicly bet in the first... MORE
November 22, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
My earlier post drew a number of helpful comments, including one from Karl Smith on his own blog. it is right that take the knowledge of market failure that we have and do what we can to alleviate what suffering... MORE
November 21, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Below is a metaphor I am working on. Feel free to comment.... MORE
November 1, 2010
Politics and Economics
Bryan Caplan
Tomorrow is my first of ten chances to win my bet against one-party democracy with Arnold:Republicans will regain control of at least one branch of the federal government at some point between now and January 20, 2017 (two inaugurations from... MORE
October 26, 2010
Economic Education
Arnold Kling
Among those trying to popularize the Arrow Impossibility Theorem are Steven Landsburg, Tyler Cowen, and Alex Tabarrok. Alex writes, More generally, what Arrow showed is that group choice (aggregation) is not like individual choice... Arrow showed that when a group... MORE
October 25, 2010
Economics of Education
Bryan Caplan
Common sense says that marginal consumer of a product - the person who say "Eh, why not?" before he buys - benefits less from his purchase than the product's average consumer. This is clearly true for consumption decisions: The typical... MORE
October 17, 2010
Economics of Health Care
Arnold Kling
1. Twenty years ago, Peter Diamond wrote, suppose individuals could be grouped independent of their health needs and work status. What if government simply assigned people to groups, ranging in size from 10,000 to 100,000, based solely on where they... MORE
October 15, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
David Freedman in The Atlantic writes, We think of the scientific process as being objective, rigorous, and even ruthless in separating out what is true from what we merely wish to be true, but in fact it's easy to manipulate... MORE
October 12, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Scott Sumner asks, How was it that just a few years later it was almost impossible to get anything published without assuming rational expectations, efficient markets, etc. Let me tell you. For a period of about 5 to 10 years,... MORE
September 29, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In a thoughtful and provocative post, Tyler tells us:Tolerance of gay individuals and alternative lifestyles is at a historic high. I would not endorse a crude "regression toward the mean" hypothesis, but we should at least try it on for... MORE
September 23, 2010
Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings
Arnold Kling
The book is Intellectual Capital. Forty Years of the Nobel Prize in Economics, by Thomas Karier, and I was sent a review copy. It appears that the author culled through the economics Nobel web site to obtain material. There are... MORE
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
He says, the days of what I call the "Field of Dreams" strategy--build a bigger GDP, and the jobs will come--should be over. It's a sensible strategy in many contexts, but it has two serious drawbacks in the present situation.... MORE
September 22, 2010
Economic Methods
David Henderson
David Friedman has an excellent post titled "What Should Count as Nutty?" It follows two of his earlier posts on Christine O'Donnell. A couple of excerpts: In trying to make sense of all this, I fall back on the observation... MORE
September 17, 2010
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
The following should not be construed as advice to graduate students. Let someone else try it first. 1. Forget the national income and product accounts. Pay no attention to the arbitrary classification of output as C,I,G, and NX. 2. Instead,... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A commenter points to a post from Pete Boettke a couple months ago, where he quotes testimony from David Colander. One would think that competition in ideas would lead to the stronger ideas winning out. Unfortunately, because the macroeconomy is... MORE
September 15, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
This study comes from the Economic Policy Institute. The study analyzes workers with similar human capital. It controls for education, experience, hours of work, organizational size, gender, race, ethnicity and disability and finds that, compared to workers in the private... MORE
September 9, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
University of Chicago student Brian McDonald has graciously inventoried all my outstanding bets, including a couple I'd forgotten about. His complete list:Bryan Caplan's bets in order of closing date: 1. "I've bet my $200 to Walter's $1 that Ron Paul... MORE
September 2, 2010
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
She says, by June, before the Recovery Act could have had much of an impact, it was 9½ percent. That is, our projection turned out to be wrong even before the Recovery Act had a chance to get off the... MORE
September 1, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
In an interview, he says, the more dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous is the economic environment that you seek to model, the more you are going to have to roll up your sleeves, and learn and use some math. Pointer from... MORE
August 31, 2010
Finance: stocks, options, etc.
Arnold Kling
James Hamilton writes, Suppose that the Federal Reserve were to sell off all its Treasury securities of less than one-year maturity, and use the proceeds to buy up all the longer term Treasury debt it could. For example, in December... MORE
August 30, 2010
Business Economics
Arnold Kling
They discuss motivation and incentives. Very enjoyable conversation. If anything, it is a little too fast-paced. One point is that people seek autonomy, mastery, and purpose. I think that is very true in people's avocations, or hobbies. I think, though,... MORE
August 22, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
My book on democracy, my almost-complete book on kids, and my future book on education all take inconvenient positions. Meaning: In each case, there's an ideologically cleaner and more crowd-pleasing rationale for what I think people ought to do.Case 1:... MORE
August 13, 2010
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
The previous installment was here. The installment below discusses macroeconometrics. It is very brief, because I think that the issue is better discussed in the context of the historical perspective that I envision providing in the main part of the... MORE
August 12, 2010
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
I am starting to re-read Ed Leamer's textbook, Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories. Very early, he presents a graph of real GDP from 1955 to 2005 on a log scale, showing that it grows at a trend rate of 3 percent,... MORE
August 2, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Strongly recommended. A sample: within this universe of programs that are far more likely to fail than succeed, programs that try to change people are even more likely to fail than those that try to change incentives. A litany of... MORE
July 30, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Ezra Klein writes, The Kling post goes a bit far. Plenty of respected macroeconomists still use macroeconomic models, which is in itself a refutation of the idea that "the profession has decided that this macroeconometric project was a blind alley."... MORE
July 28, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
What the Blinder-Zandi paper does is explore the properties of a macroeconometric model. The economics profession abandoned those models thirty years ago, so the tool they are using is like a fossil, frozen in time. Of course, there have been... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
While ghost-writing for the Conservative Missionary and the Libertarian Missionary, I found myself reflecting on the principles of good debating. I realize that debating can just be a sophistical exercise. But it doesn't have to be. In fact, it has... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi used Zandi's econometric model as the basis for a claim that the stimulus and the TARP worked. Thirty-five years ago, I was Blinder's research assistant, doing these sorts of simulations on the Fed-MIT-Penn model for... MORE
June 28, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I am not a soccer fan. In my amateur opinion, the rules ought to be changed to foster more scoring. This is not because I want to see more scoring. But having more scoring would reduce the luck factor. It... MORE
June 27, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Kartik Athreya writes, Why should anyone accept uncritically that Economics, or any field of human endeavor, for that matter, should be easy to process and contribute to? Pointer from Greg Mankiw. Read the whole thing. He is suggesting that bloggers... MORE
June 18, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In econ grad school, you learn a dozen good ideas and a hundred seemingly irrelevant ones. Most of those hundred ideas deservedly languish in obscurity; no one uses them to explain the real world, even in conversation. But once in... MORE
May 30, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Nick Rowe writes, We can't forecast next year's Y unless Statistics Canada tells us next year's X, and they can't. His point is that some variables are outside of the model, and to make a forecast in real time you... MORE
May 27, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I'm officially pronouncing Scott Sumner the master of Krugman exegesis. Two gems (the first level quotes are me quoting Sumner, the second level quotes are me quoting Sumner quoting Krugman):OK, let's have some fun with this golden oldie from 2005:... MORE
May 14, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Narayana R. Kocherlakota, President of the Minneapolis Fed, writes, modern macro models are designed to be mathematical formalizations of the entire economy. This ambitious approach is frustrating for many outside the field. Many economists like verbal intuitions as a way... MORE
May 13, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Joshua D. Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke write, Empirical microeconomics has experienced a credibility revolution, with a consequent increase in policy relevance and scientific impact. The quote is from the paper, which is gated, and the link is to the abstract,... MORE
May 12, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Bob Murphy sees a contradiction between my 2008 Bayesian commitment on TARP, my 2009 probability adjustment, and my current views. In 2008, I said that if the economy tanked, "I still won't be convinced [that TARP is a good idea],... MORE
May 7, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bruce Charlton no longer edits one. While he was editor, he published Robin Hanson's classic article on what we now call Hansonian medicine. Daniel Klein still edits one, and the latest issue features an article challenging Bryan Caplan's view that... MORE
May 6, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
On Facebook, I just posed the following question:Bryan Caplan is less certain about most things than others believe him to be. What's the source of the misperception?My starting hypothesis: People confuse bluntness with certainty.If you question the premise, remember: A... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I think Sumner's being tongue-in-check, but here's his genuinely good idea for a new journal:Most economists obviously disagree with me. The top economists are constantly making predictions that violate the EMH. OK, then why not set up a new journal, the... MORE
May 4, 2010
Economic Methods
David Henderson
On a list serve that I receive, Warren Gibson, an economics instructor at San Jose State University, recently wrote: Rothbard's Man, Economy, and State discusses bargaining at length but I can't think of another text that does so. Rothbard starts... MORE
May 3, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Luis Angeles nobly confessed to a serious coding error in his paper on kids and happiness. At least to me, that's a (moderately) negative signal of competence and a (strongly) positive signal of honesty. If you were a journal editor,... MORE
April 28, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Denationalize Housing Finance is a slogan I could get behind. The essay, by David Oedel and Ed Pinto, is timely and important. An update on the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. I know that the Senate and the mainstream media... MORE
March 7, 2010
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I noticed continued resistance to survey evidence in the comments. Frankly, it's hard to believe there's anyone left in social science who doesn't take surveys seriously. Friedman's original arguments against survey evidence were half-baked, and no one's come up with... MORE
March 3, 2010
Behavioral Economics and Rationality
Arnold Kling
He speaks here. He raises a number of issues with self-reported happiness. An example he gives is someone moving to California because he thinks he will be happier there. If you ask him if he is happier in California, he... MORE
Economic Methods
David Henderson
My favorite part of the introductory philosophy course I took at the University of Winnipeg was the segment on logic, especially on logical fallacies. One of the most common logical fallacies is "denying the antecedent." Here's the example used in... MORE
February 18, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Menzie Chinn writes, the forecasts are generated using old-fashioned models in the spirit of the neoclassical synthesis (demand determined in short run, supply determined in the long run) with (as I understand it) backwards looking expectations rather than model-consistent expectations.... MORE
February 3, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Sometimes, people want something so badly that there is money to be made selling them a defective product. Werner Troesken's paper (full version here) on the history of quack medicines offers an example. No matter how many of these medicines... MORE
February 1, 2010
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I am possibly going to speak on a panel in a few weeks on the issue of U.S. unemployment. I am thinking of trying to convey two ideas (is that too many? I only have ten minutes). 1. Do not... MORE
December 19, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Many people I know objected to my last post on Hayek. Arnold jokingly called me a troll. My colleague Russ Roberts urged me to learn greater patience:Five blog posts, huh? I guess that's something like saying Coase only wrote a... MORE
December 15, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A lot of the feeling about him is correlated with how one feels about math. Those feelings range from Robert Lucas (quoted by Tyler Cowen and elsewhere): I internalized its view that if I couldn't formulate a problem in economic... MORE
Economic Methods
David Henderson
My article on Paul Samuelson's work is in today's (Tuesday's) Wall Street Journal. They cut it by about 600 words to fit the space. My favorite paragraph that appeared is this one: "Let those who will write the nation's laws... MORE
December 14, 2009
Economic Philosophy
Arnold Kling
Dan Klein has thoughts on studying the great minds of the past. This bears on the issue of whether or not one can or should distill Hayek (or any other famous thinker) to five blog posts, as Bryan blithely suggested.... MORE
December 13, 2009
Economic Education
Arnold Kling
1. He was influential. He influenced students through his textbook, and he influenced the entire economics profession through his dissertation, published as "Foundations of Economic Analysis." Readers of this blog will tend to disapprove of his influence, in that it... MORE
December 2, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I got a server error when I tried to leave a comment on Tyler Cowen's blog. Here is the comment: Suppose that the credibility of a scientist is a function of two variables: (1) the evidence he offers; and (2)... MORE
December 1, 2009
Finance: stocks, options, etc.
Arnold Kling
Bill Easterly is not of fan of military nation-building in Afghanistan. He writes, critics of top-down state plans for economic development are also not fans of top-down state plans for military development. If the Left likes the first, and the... MORE
November 30, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Russ Roberts interviews Pete Boettke on Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom and the Bloomington School. As you listen, note near the end of a slight dig against the 2007 Nobel Prize topic of mechanism design. Ostrom's work would suggest that trial-and-error... MORE
November 25, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Nick Rowe compares and contrasts climate science with macroeconomics. After listing some similarities, he turns to differences. D1. Macroeconomists are trying to explain people; climate scientists aren't. People are harder to explain. In particular, people's behaviour depends on what they... MORE
November 23, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Neither Tyler nor Robin think that Climategate tells us much about climate science. Robin says that "it's news about academia, not climate":[T]this behavior has long been typical when academics form competing groups, whether the public hears about such groups or... MORE
November 22, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Seth Roberts interviews Tyler Cowen, who says, I am very interested in the topic of "styles of thought in economics." Robert Solow, my thesis adviser, was a big fan of starting with simple numerical examples. The point is that you... MORE
November 19, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
When a person with crummy but popular arguments says that "truth is relative," I understand their motives. They're denying that anyone else's arguments are any better, and hoping that there's safety in numbers. But when a person with clever but... MORE
November 18, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
An economist I know just emailed me:I anticipate participating in a survey project of a sample of AEA members. Such a survey is an opportunity for throwing in extraneous questions of interest. Can you think of question or two you... MORE
November 16, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I don't think I'll find a better answer than Robin's:[T]he main social function of academia is to let students, patrons, readers, etc. affiliate with credentialed-as-impressive minds. If so, academic beliefs are secondary - the important thing is to clearly show... MORE
November 15, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Almost all economic models assume that human beings are Bayesians: They start with some prior beliefs about how the world works, and update those beliefs using Bayes' Theorem as new information arrives. Behavioral economists often question whether people are in... MORE
November 3, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
George Stigler is notorious for his dogmatic belief that any stable feature of the social world is efficient. Since people are rational, they quickly spot and bargain around inefficiencies. I was a little surprised, then, to read these words in... MORE
November 2, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Warden: The part of the brain that remembers dance steps is also the anger center. So, juveniles who know how to fox trot are 10% less likely to commit a double homicide.Prisoner: Who conducted this study?Warden: The Institute of Shut... MORE
October 30, 2009
Behavioral Economics and Rationality
Arnold Kling
What causes people to change their minds? On this blog, I have argued that people do not change their minds on ideological issues. I have argued that econometric regression results typically do not change people's minds. Why is that?... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
He writes, Economists should listen more to techies on what techs will be feasible at what costs, but techies should also listen more to economists on the social implications of tech costs. Alas, just as economists prefer to rely on... MORE
October 29, 2009
Fiscal Policy
Arnold Kling
Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna write, Our results suggest that tax cuts are more expansionary than spending increases in the cases of a fiscal stimulus. Based upon these correlations we would argue that the current stimulus package in the US... MORE
October 26, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
(i). Bob Sutton quotes a meta-analysis by Frank Schmidt and John Hunter published in 1998 on the factors found to affect job performance. 1. GMA tests ("General mental ability") 2. Work sample tests 3. Integrity tests: surveys design to assess... MORE
October 21, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I try to write the kind of books I'd like to read, and I try to read the kind of books I'd like to write. This isn't as narcissistic as it sounds. I'd like to write like Tolstoy or Alan... MORE
October 19, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
If I had to sum up the mind-set of my Princeton econ education in one cliche, it would be, "There are those who would strain out a gnat, but at the same time swallow a camel." Sometimes, the profs could... MORE
October 7, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I had a conversation with a colleague today where he discussed research showing that successful people have (a) the confidence to aim for the top, and (b) the humility to harshly critique their own work. He went on to argue... MORE
September 20, 2009
Austrian Economics
Arnold Kling
Pete Boettke pens An Open Letter to Tyler Cowen (and Arnold Kling). He has some nice things to say about Tyler.... MORE
September 18, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
He spoke at a lunch today. I didn't take notes, so I may have some things wrong.... MORE
September 13, 2009
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
I am definitely going to be a subscriber to this new blog. Thanks to Will Wilkinson for the pointer. Several of the initial posts are pushback at Paul Krugman's piece on what economists got wrong. Nobel Laureate Vernon Smith chimes... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I can't tell you how many times natural and social scientists have solemnly told me, "All theories are false." Their "proof" usually amounts to the solitary example of Newtonian physics, proven false by Einsteinian physics. But if you're patient, they... MORE
September 12, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
From John Cochrane and from Daniel Klein. Cochrane writes, Most of the article is just a calumnious personal attack on an ever-growing enemies list, which now includes "new Keyenesians" such as Olivier Blanchard and Greg Mankiw. Rather than source professional... MORE
August 25, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Mark Thoma writes, even though earthquakes cannot be predicted, at least not yet, it would be wrong to conclude that science has nothing to offer. First, understanding how earthquakes occur can help us design buildings and make other changes to... MORE
August 20, 2009
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
Two links to discuss in this post. First, David Altig discusses the "output gap," which I put in scare quotes because it is a concept that I am about to attack. Pointer from the indispensable Mark Thoma, who also provided... MORE
July 20, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Not only do I look down on thinkers who won't bet; I also look down on thinkers who won't debate. The flip side is that I particularly admire thinkers who propose bets and debates. I'm pleased to report, then, that... MORE
July 7, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Science, Ziliak and McCloskey say, needs to learn both whether and how much. But the putatively common practice of ending the empirical analysis by checking whether a calculated test statistic does or doesn't reject the null hypothesis according to... MORE
July 6, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan writes, Suppose someone had the personality least favorable to economic conservatism: a 0 on Extraversion, 1 on Agreeableness, 0 on Conscientiousness, 0 on Stability, and 1 on Openness. According to the same regression referenced earlier, this person is expected... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Arnold raises an important challenge to my last post:In measuring the importance of personality traits in predicting political ideology, I would ask how much of political ideology can be explained by personality. The answer, if you look at the R2... MORE
July 5, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I appreciate Bryan's pointer to an article by Alan Gerber and others on personality and ideology. However, the article illustrates what I consider to be a methodological error. That error is to use statistical significance as a metric. Statistical significance... MORE
June 15, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
An interesting side discussion from "The Power of Personality" defends the practical importance even small correlations:Walter Mischel (1968) argued that personality traits had limited utility in predicting behavior because their correlational upper limit appeared to be about .30. Subsequently, this... MORE
Behavioral Economics and Rationality
Arnold Kling
Bryan recently put up two interesting posts, one on personality, the other on econometrics. On personality, he points to some analysis saying that the correlation is higher between certain personality traits and life outcomes than it is between socioeconomic status... MORE
June 12, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan writes, We still think about supply and demand, but we also think about policy, psychology, behavioral genetics, and much more. Some random comments: I wrote about Masonomics as thinking about incentives, signaling, institutions, and evolution. I have heard Nobel... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
From my colleague Russ Roberts:I continue to ask the question: name an empirical study that uses sophisticated statistical techniques that was so well done, it ended a controversy and created a consensus--a consensus where former opponents of one viewpoint had... MORE
June 11, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I've studied economics for over twenty years. The more I think about it, though, the more I realize that I don't know what "economics" means anymore. Textbooks may say that economics is about "incentives" or "trade-offs." But you can publish... MORE
June 5, 2009
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
He writes, the decision has been made to somewhat arbitrarily impose the view that macro models must be grounded in micro foundations. Readers of this blog know that I would be the last person to defend economic methods in macro... MORE
May 13, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
William Easterly takes on Paul Collier (and implicitly many other users of regression techniques). Oodles of regressions were run...Oodles of control variables were tried...Sample was sliced up to get results... Read the whole thing. My father used to say that... MORE
May 4, 2009
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
He is one of the most interesting economic thinkers out there, and Russ Roberts does a nice job interviewing him. The podcast covers the lack of knowledge that we have about macroeconomics, the fact that so many business cycles seem... MORE
April 26, 2009
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
on bloggingheads. We both express some humility about what macroeconomics can do. The New York Times decided to extract the section on bank bailouts.... MORE
April 13, 2009
Behavioral Economics and Rationality
Arnold Kling
In chapter one of his economics textbook Hidden Order, David Friedman writes, Economics is that way of understanding behavior that starts from the assumption that individuals have objectives and tend to choose the correct way to achieve them. ...For a... MORE
April 7, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Google's Hal Varian and Hyunyoung Choi write, We find that Google Trends data can help improve forecasts of the current level of activity for a number of different economic time series, including automobile sales, home sales, retail sales, and travel... MORE
April 3, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A while back, I mentioned this essay by Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, which at the time was not on line. Now it is there. I think it gives a useful history and perspective on macroeconometrics. Note in particular his discussion of the... MORE
March 26, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
From John Mackey, the CEO of Whole Foods, in an essay in Be the Solution, p. 79: the classical economists became enchanted with the efficiency and the productivity of the industrial enterprises that they studied. Industrial and machine metaphors became... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Last night I gave my talk at a meeting on financial regulation. The meeting was organized by David Evans. I gather that his goal is to put together a group of practitioners in the field of finance and regulation to... MORE
March 23, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Russ Roberts talks with Nassim Taleb. I was most interested in the latter third of the conversation, where Taleb talks about his radical empiricism. For example, he argues that medicine makes more progress with trial-and-error than with knowledge of biological... MORE
March 20, 2009
Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings
Arnold Kling
Win the Fraser Institute's Money. They want you to enter a contest about what to measure in order to improve public policy. In Be The Solution, Michael Strong cites the Fraser Institute's measures of economic freedom and how well they... MORE
March 18, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In his defense of non-betting, Tyler has said this:How would you feel about an obligation (if only a moral one) for scholars and commentators to publicly reveal the content of their investment portfolios? Those portfolios are their real bets. Yet... MORE
March 15, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A bloggingheads dialog. I think it really heats up starting about 30 minutes in. If you want to know what it's like to argue with Tyler or Robin, watching this will show you.... MORE
March 14, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Tyler writes:Bryan Caplan believes that scholars should be ashamed if they do not publicly bet their views. In contrast I fear this requirement would become a tax upon ideas.My knee-jerk reaction is to say, "Yes, a tax upon false ideas." ... MORE
March 11, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Here's news I can use: Krugman talked smack about Mankiw, Mankiw politely proposed a bet, and Krugman ignored his offer. Which reminds me - I'm still waiting for Andy Kessler to accept my bet on the bailout.I have a dream... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
How one thinks about probability affects how one thinks about economics. Consider the use of the word "probability" in each of the following sentences:... MORE
March 6, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen points to Fabio Rojas, who tries to reduce sociology to four issues. Rachel Kling once offered an even quicker summary of every sociological course: "There's poverty and America sucks."... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
If there's one thing I've learned from Tetlock, it's that you should openly admit your errors and update your beliefs in response to evidence. So let me now share two mea culpas with you.1. Last September, I wrote:If the bail-out... MORE
March 3, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
He writes, The purpose of this picture is to show that deeper-than-average recessions are followed by faster-than-average recoveries. (Similar evidence was compiled in the 2005 Economic Report of the President, Chapter 2.) This evidence might be taken as evidence in... MORE
February 11, 2009
Finance: stocks, options, etc.
Arnold Kling
Mark Jickling of the Congressional Research Service produced a handy chart of causal factors for the financial crisis. I think there are at least twenty, and I personally would probably endorse at least two-thirds of them as playing some role.... MORE
February 10, 2009
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
Clive Crook writes, Mr Krugman gives liberals the economics they want. Mr Barro gives conservatives the same service. They narrow or deny the common ground. Why does this matter? Because the views of readers inclined to one side or the... MORE
February 9, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
A while back, I favorably quoted this line from Larry White: "One can't explain an unusual cluster of errors by citing greed, which is always around, just as one can't explain a cluster of airplane crashes by citing gravity." Soon... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A first version is here. I was thinking of submitting something like this to the AEA's new Journal Macroeconomics. Suggestions for improvement are welcome.... MORE
February 7, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
When Russ Roberts rewrites some typically hysterical economic reporting, it's a thing of beauty. But I still prefer his regular blogging. :-)... MORE
February 5, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Menzie Chinn writes, A key reason for the academic disenchantment with these types of models included the view that the identification schemes used were untenable (e.g., why is income in the consumption function but not in the investment?). Another source... MORE
January 26, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Yours truly on why the doctor needs a boss. It's about ten minutes. I start out by describing an experience I had with reincarnation. Russ Roberts and Robin Hanson discuss the search for meaning and truth. It is clear that... MORE
January 20, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Robin celebrates Inauguration Day with an idealistic yet cynical challenge:[W]hat does Obama have to do for you to consider him a "good" president, or even better than Bush? It is enough for you that he is (part) black and a... MORE
January 14, 2009
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Back in September, I asked, "How would we know if the bail-out worked?" "Wait and see" doesn't cut it, because:If the bail-out happens, how will we know if it prevented disaster? If unemployment stays under 8%, proponents will say that... MORE
January 6, 2009
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Gordon Dahl and Lance Lochner write (I can't find an ungated 2008 version of the paper, and the 2005 version seems to differ), Our baseline estimates imply that a $1,000 increase in income raises combined math and reading test... MORE
December 5, 2008
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
It comes from Eric Drexler, the nanotech visionary. Pointer from Robin Hanson who I'm sure understands much more of what Drexler says than I do. My guess is that at the margin, scientific communication would benefit from more blogging and... MORE
December 3, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
From Larry White's target essay on Cato Unbound:(One can't explain an unusual cluster of errors by citing greed, which is always around, just as one can't explain a cluster of airplane crashes by citing gravity. Anyway, the greedy aim at... MORE
November 16, 2008
Growth: Causal Factors
Arnold Kling
Reviewing Paul Collier's The Bottom Billion, William Easterly writes, Collier comes perilously close to another statistical fallacy known as selection bias. He chose the countries that belong to his Bottom Billion on the basis of their poverty today, and then... MORE
November 6, 2008
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Many people reacted to my take-down of peer review, and at least one commenter asked, "Can you come up with something better?" Easily. The generic problem is something called "reputation systems."... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Felix Salmon writes, one of the problems with such research is the way that it's presented to the public, through newspaper and magazine articles, or TED lectures, or the online dissemination of pre-pubication versions of papers. The stuff which gets... MORE
October 24, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
No, not The Undercover Economist. The Underground Economist. That's the theme of a new symposium that Dan Klein, intellectual entrepreneur extraordinaire, is soliciting for Econ Journal Watch:Fyodor Dostoevsky's novella Notes from Underground (1864) is a classic of introspection and confession.... MORE
October 22, 2008
Finance: stocks, options, etc.
Arnold Kling
I am shocked at the behavior of my fellow economists during this crisis. They are claiming to know much more than they do about causes and solutions. Rather than trying to understand and explain what is going on, they are... MORE
September 30, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
We're still likely to see a bail-out in the near future. So here's a question: If the bail-out happens, how will we know if it prevented disaster? If unemployment stays under 8%, proponents will say that the bail-out prevented a... MORE
September 29, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I've figured out a way to operationalize a bail-out bet. Method: In five years, the government itself is supposed to publicly announce whether the bail-out lost money. I propose to use the government's self-assessment in five years to adjudicate the... MORE
September 28, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In the comments, Patri Friedman points out that Barry Ritholtz has already offered a $1M bet that the bail-out loses money. Alas, though I agree with (and even chuckle with) Ritzholtz's conclusion, this is not yet a serious bet. Problems:... MORE
September 26, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Several readers suggest that I bet Andy Kessler about the U.S. government turning a profit on its bail-out. Here's Kessler's claim:My calculations, which assume 50% impairment on subprime loans, suggest it is possible, all in, for this portfolio to generate... MORE
September 25, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Bush says that the Paulson Plan might turn a profit:The government is the one institution with the patience and resources to buy these assets at their current low prices and hold them until markets return to normal. And when that... MORE
September 13, 2008
Macroeconomics
Arnold Kling
At lunch, Nick Schulz asked me what Robert Hall is known for. I said that Hall changed my view of macroeconomics. Even today, Hall's work influences how I think about global warming. So pull up a chair, grab a cup... MORE
August 20, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Writing instructors often attack the use of the words "obvious," "of course," and the like. "If it's 'obvious,'" they mock, "then don't say it!" But giving up these words is easier said than done. I can't imagine giving an econ... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
In a very short, satirical paper, James Heckman writes, Provided conditional density (1) is assumed, we do not need to observe a variable in order to compute its conditional expectation with respect to another variable whose density can be estimated.... MORE
August 18, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I often disagree with people who know more about a given topic than I do. For example, the typical economist who works in Industrial Organization is familiar with a lot more current antitrust research than I am. Robin Hanson notwithstanding,... MORE
August 6, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Confession: When Scott Page's book The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies came out, I assumed it would be a flabby, politically correct snooze-fest. Since I don't like flabby, politically correct snooze-fests, I... MORE
July 29, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
On many exams, professors give students e.g. 4 questions, then say "Answer any three." The point, I suppose, is to: 1. Avoid penalizing students for random blind spots. 2. Create safety valve for badly-written questions. In practice, though, it seems... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
When the typical professor reads a referee's rejection letter, his standard explanation is that "The referee was an idiot." Most of the time this is unfair - at least half the time, it's the author who's the idiot, and the... MORE
June 19, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In 1975, Ann Landers asked her readers a hypothetical question: If you had you had your life to live over again, would you still have children? Over 10,000 replied. 70% said no. I've seen several random "child-free" activists cite Landers'... MORE
June 17, 2008
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I received an email from a reader who was very excited to find that over the past 70 years the correlation between excess health care inflation (the price of health care relative to the overall CPI) and the proportion of... MORE
June 11, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
From Robert Gordon's "Everyday Life As An Intelligence Test":Even defense attorney Alan Dershowitz was guilty of faulty probability reasoning when he correctly pointed out that fewer than 1 in 1000 wives who are abused by their spouses, as Mrs. Simpson... MORE
May 28, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Tyler's said this before, but it still flabbergasts me:It's funny how Bryan thinks he can cite my actions as evidence against the correct belief. That's absurd; for instance I also don't act as if determinism is true, but citing that... MORE
April 25, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Who knows enough about the data to say how many of the 15 rematch bets Ehrlich would have won?... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Tyler says that John Rawls is the "least Hansonian thinker" ever. But perhaps Paul Ehrlich is a better candidate. Here's what he (and his wife) have to say about betting:Steve and Paul indulged in this betting foolishness in the first... MORE
April 22, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Once again, Robin's doing what he does best: get meta. I've argued that Sylvia Hewlett hurt her book sales by stepping on her friends' toes without reaching out to potential allies. But if that's what I think, says Robin, isn't... MORE
April 2, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Here are my two Laws of Fundamentalism: 1. In any textual dispute between fundamentalists and moderates of the same creed, the fundamentalists are almost always correct. 2. In any substantive dispute between fundamentalists and moderates of the same creed, the... MORE
March 17, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In most twin studies, the twins themselves (or their parents) report "twin type" - i.e., whether the twins are identical (monozygotic/MZ) or fraternal (dizygotic/DZ). This is reasonably accurate, but falls far short of DNA testing. Most behavioral genetic studies rely... MORE
March 12, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
The true author of each of these sentences is a noted Nobel prize-winner. Still, if a grad student wrote any of them, he should be embarrassed. I italicize the words that make each sentence blush-worthy, and follow each with a... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Dan Phiffer, a blogger I met at SXSW, has set up a little "wisdom of crowds" experiment on his blog. Check it out, and see if you can make the crowd a little wiser. :-)... MORE
March 10, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Murray Rothbard seems to misunderstand some elementary lessons about monetary economics. He was a brilliant polymath, so it's hard to believe that this was simple ignorance. Perhaps he got locked into these errors early in his career, and never broke... MORE
March 4, 2008
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Reviewing the last chapter of Tim Harford's The Logic of Life, Fabio Rojas writes, the market system itself, as indicated by Tim’s concluding chapter, depends on population, innovation, and liberal economic institutions. These, in turn, depend on psychology, group culture,... MORE
February 28, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In a critique of Brink Lindsey, Arnold writes: "I think that my co-blogger would go ballistic over this 'nurture assumption' methodology." I wouldn't quite go ballistic, because there is solid evidence that growing up in a high-IQ home raises the... MORE
January 13, 2008
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen discusses what he sees as some of the most interesting findings of the past year in economics. The common thread in these various discoveries is a careful use of data and an interest in real-world problems and puzzles.... MORE
January 9, 2008
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I've been singing Krugman's praises for years. Anyone who could write The Accidental Theorist has a lot of credit in my bank. But his latest column on the failure of betting markets is so beneath him, it hurts to read:[P]rediction... MORE
December 5, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
1. Arnold writes:I have no strong priors about the distribution of possible global temperatures going forward.How about strong posteriors conditional upon the existence of a scientific consensus? If consensus doesn't impress you, then you should be willing to bet at... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan writes, isn't Arnold's standard of scientific evidence strangely strict? Few results in economics rest on an "experiment or a naturally-occurring event where the results are extremely unlikely to occur unless X is true." I thought I was simply stating... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Like other global warming skeptics, Arnold objects to reliance on scientific consensus:To me, scientific evidence is not "a whole bunch of scientists think X." To me, scientific evidence is "Here is an experiment or a naturally-occurring event where the results... MORE
November 14, 2007
Growth: Causal Factors
Arnold Kling
As part of an online seminar, Adam Przeworski writes, When in 1993 Limongi and I reviewed studies of the effect of political regimes on economic growth, we found that the results perfectly fitted the ideological climate of the period when... MORE
November 12, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Fabio Rojas is looking for:[Z]ip code level data from 2004/2005 that has:demography: gender, age, race, SES, occupation. Other stuff (like family structure or housing) would be a plus. political behavior: party ID + 2004 presidential vote would be more than... MORE
October 26, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Tyler Cowen has a challenge for me:Dan's key point is that you, in fact, differ radically from the professional consensus (as Arnold writes as well) and that the argument is self-undercutting if you simultaneously erect expert consensus as a relevant... MORE
October 22, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Russ Roberts writes, Edward Leamer’s indictment of modern econometrics, “Let’s take the ‘con’ out of econometrics” is the best known critique of our habits as empirical economists but it has not been taken to heart by the profession. There are... MORE
October 16, 2007
Institutional Economics
Arnold Kling
Gregory Clark goes medieval on Avner Greif. In chapter 2, Greif lays out a formal definition of an institution. This is, “An institution is a system of rules, beliefs, norms and organizations that together generate a regularity of (social) behavior”... MORE
October 13, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I like to see myself as an equal-opportunity offender, but I can't measure up to Mankiw's latest:Consider a person who A. takes an important truth developed by others, B. exaggerates it for dramatic effect, C. as a result, draws public... MORE
October 5, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
In my book, I reference Surowiecki's "guess-the-weight-of-an-ox" anecdote. My colleague David Levy and his co-author Sandra Peart show that isn't quite right. Contrary to Surowiecki, Galton reported the median guess, not the mean - which was reported by Pearson years... MORE
October 1, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, thinks like an economist - and wants his readers to do the same: I studied economics in college. One thing I’ve noticed is that other people who have studied economics tend to think a similar... MORE
September 12, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
In summing up his reaction to Gregory Clark's book, Tyler Cowen writes, Greg wants an explanation with a Malthusian or a Ricardian rigor and logic. I believe our explanations will be more like those of history than of economics. That... MORE
August 14, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Robin lays down a challenge:Consider the people you most admire that you know personally, such as your parents, spouse, or work mentor. Now imagine the worse [sic] sort of things someone might plausibly accuse those people of. Are you confident... MORE
August 2, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen writes, I tend to trust sources who use their intelligence to point out flaws in their own positions. But is this more than an aesthetic preference on my part? In my view, this is much more than an... MORE
August 1, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Don't miss David Henderson's amiable podcast on disagreement in economics. His tale of disillusion with Krugman alone is worth the price of admission. This podcast reminds me of an idea I've had for a while: Creating a meta-petition of policies... MORE
July 31, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Tom Slee writes, what I get from the Netflix prize is that there are probably significant limits to recommender systems. Even the smartest don't do a whole lot better than the simple approaches, and a lot of work is required... MORE
July 30, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Arnold writes:With one exception, I think there is nothing that the public can look for in terms of a signal about economists. The best thing is to force economists to explain their arguments clearly in layman's terms, and then to... MORE
July 12, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Alex's ridicule of the New York Times piece on economists who "oppose the hegemony of free-market economics" is spot-on. Basic fact-checking would have exposed the silliness of this story, which was decisively refuted by Dan Klein and Charlotta Stern a... MORE
July 9, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Guest blogging at Free Exchange, I answer the charge that Econ is a cult, and end with a hymn of praise:[T]here's nowhere where the grass is greener than in the economics profession. It's far from perfect, but economics is an... MORE
July 6, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Brad DeLong explains the birth of an early pro-NAFTA number:Here's where I state that the "200,000 net jobs projected from NAFTA" number was mine: we took an estimate of overall economic efficiency gains from tariff reductions and an employment elasticity... MORE
June 28, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Evolution and genetics aside, my understanding of natural science is very weak. Fortunately, examining the bets experts are willing to make is a great substitute for understanding what they are talking about. So when Robin Hanson reports that global warming... MORE
June 19, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A commenter on my post on the slowdown in America's height gains refers to Michael R. Eades, who points out that the original research was pretty much self-refuting. It should be real easy to determine whether the above sociological jibberish... MORE
June 13, 2007
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
The well-educated like to mock astrology; I've done it myself. But today over lunch, Robin Hanson convinced me that it's unfair to do so. There's nothing wrong with studying the predictive power of astrological signs. The only problem is concluding... MORE
June 1, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
More than one reader has asked me about Paul Ormerod. Is he an example of an economist who has been unjustly overlooked by the mainstream?... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Brad DeLong writes, My view is that the neoclassical economics toolkit can be very, very useful--no, stronger than that, is very useful and necessary--for everybody from the center on left. ...By contrast, the neoclassical toolkit can be absolute poison for... MORE
May 31, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
There is a lively discussion at TPM Cafe over whether heterodox economics gets no love from the neoclassical crowd. Here is an excerpt from a summary. Chris Hayes kicks things off by boiling down his feature Nation piece into two... MORE
May 17, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
In the latest Econ Journal Watch, at least two articles are about what is not found in economic literature. John Dawson argues that The Economic Freedom of the World index is under-utilized in studies of economic growth. Charles Blankart and... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Few economists bother to explain in writing why other people's articles are a waste of time. Even fewer economists bother to explain in writing why entire journals are a waste of time. As far as I'm aware, in fact, there... MORE
May 14, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Daniel J. D'Amico and Daniel B. Klein write, scholastics are more concerned with speaking to each other, distilling results, and passing them down through intermediaries to the laity. Pietistic figures are more interested in speaking directly to the everyman. They... MORE
April 30, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Russ Roberts interviews Nassim Taleb. It's one of the most fascinating interviews in Roberts' series. One implication of Taleb's thinking is that we are overconfident in our ability to manage risk. Burt Malkiel, who is arguing from a more traditional... MORE
April 24, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
William J. Polley points to Solow's essay, which first appeared in 1997. A few excerpts and my comments.... MORE
April 18, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Elaborating on a point I raised , I am going to make the following conjecture: In an evaluation scale (e.g, rate this professor on a scale of 1 to 5), the mean evaluation is biased toward the middle. Is this... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Glaeser and Sacerdote, suggesting that when rich people are around other rich people, they vote Democratic, but when they are around less-rich people, they vote Republican. Not having read the paper, I'm guessing on the basis of the abstract that... MORE
April 17, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
In an email that he gave me permission to quote, Greg writes, Your instrumental variable analogy is good, but your assertion that it is a weak instrument is not. The calculations in the paper establish how good an instrument height... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Greg Mankiw links to a new paper that he co-authored with Matthew Weinzierl that says, Should the income tax system include a tax credit for short taxpayers and a tax surcharge for tall ones? This paper shows that the standard... MORE
March 28, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Alex Tabarrok defends Steven Levitt from an attack by Noam Schieber. I think Scheiber is off in a few ways. First, he conflates methods and questions. It's true that clean identification is often found with quirky experiments but a quirky... MORE
March 4, 2007
Political Economy
Arnold Kling
Robert Shimer tries to summarize the research of Clark Medalist Daron Acemoglu. One example. Daron and James [Robinson] explore the transition from autocracy to democracy. What makes the political elites allow the poor to vote? Daron and James argue that... MORE
February 23, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
John Quiggin writes, Suppose you wanted to establish whether children’s height increased with age, but you couldn’t measure height directly. One way to respond to this problem would be to interview groups of children in different classes at school, and... MORE
January 25, 2007
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Now that we know that an economist is someone who is honest and a public intellectual is someone who is not, suppose we were to read the following. We have data on the real income—that is, income adjusted for inflation—of... MORE
December 4, 2006
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
The smartest man I know is being savaged on the comments section of the Washington Monthly. Don't miss it!... MORE
November 16, 2006
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Milton Friedman's sad passing reminds me of King Theoden's last words in The Return of the King: You have to let me go. I go to my fathers, in whose mighty company I shall not now feel ashamed. ...and makes... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Hearing of the death of Milton Friedman, I turned to this biography. What struck me was that Friedman won the Clark Medal, given to the economist under 40 with the most achievements, in 1951. At that time, he had published... MORE
November 3, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
In a column pointing to research findings on a variety of topics, William Saletan includes The richer the country, the lower the ratio of male-to-female promiscuity. In no country is the ratio of male-to-female promiscuity measured in an unbiased manner.... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Ezra Klein engages in some interesting introspection: Nowadays, I know that folks from that end will be looking to cut apart my ideas, I have to protect my points against their insights which, in turn, means I absorb their insights.... MORE
October 24, 2006
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Tyler on refereeing: A properly critical and useful "accept" report is harder to write. Don't look for excuses to quickly reject a potentially good paper. Tyler on being refereed: If you get careless, sloppy, or downright outrageous referee reports, it... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
"[N]obody could ever figure out our own political leanings by reading our papers." That's how Andrew Gelman sees his research. In contrast, when Gelman visited GMU, "One thing that struck me about the people I met there was that their... MORE
October 19, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan wonders, Ten years ago, ultra-mathematical theorists were the kings of the economics profession. Now they seem to be nigh irrelevant. Clever and relatively open-minded empiricists rule the roost. Cementing the trend, few of the students coming out of top... MORE
September 2, 2006
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Heard of the study that finds that beautiful women have more girls and intelligent men have more boys? Andrew Gelman finds that at least the first finding is suspect on multiple levels. You get a statistically significant effect if you... MORE
August 31, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
This gets my vote for most important research finding of the year (my emphasis): “How tall your parents are compared to the average height explains 80 to 90 percent of how tall you are compared to the average person,” Dr.... MORE
July 26, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee writes, Randomized trials like these—that is, trials in which the intervention is assigned randomly—are the simplest and best way of assessing the impact of a program. They mimic the procedures used in trials of new drugs, which... MORE
June 27, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
My latest essay summarizes some ideas I've been blogging about lately. An empirical argument attempts to convince you using logic and observation. A trust cue threatens you with loss of membership in a valuable group unless you take a given... MORE
June 22, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan writes, If virtually everyone just argues for whatever position he was born into, a truth-seeker should hold the gladiators for popular views to higher standards. I have a slightly different way to arrive at this position. Consider the following... MORE
June 21, 2006
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
I'm no sports fan, but it's pretty clear that countries with more people win more Olympic medals. The obvious explanation is that people typically play for the country they were born into, and the ten best basketball players in China... MORE
June 1, 2006
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
No snarl intended, Arnold. I'm a big fan of Cox and Alm, too. But just pointing to basic numbers only gets you so far. Cox and Alm can show that living standards are rising, but if you want to figure... MORE
May 31, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan snarls, Arnold, please tell us: What's not junk? As I believe Yogi Berra said (if not, it sounds like something he would say), "You can observe a lot just by watching." I think economists should put more effort into... MORE
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Arnold writes: The junk-science aspect is to look at correlations and say that they prove what intuition and common sense might wish to be true. I just do not believe that it is possible to use correlation to untangle the... MORE
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I am reading the latest issue of the American Economic Review, which is a selection of papers from this year's annual convention of the American Economic Association. A lot of it is what I consider to be "junk science." So... MORE
May 16, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Greg Mankiw has written an outstanding new essay that reviews the history of thought in macroeconomics. I don't know where he is planning to give this paper, but I wish I could be a discussant. Here is a brief excerpt.... MORE
February 18, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan writes, If happiness research can't make behavioral predictions, then behavioral research can't make happiness predictions. Which is as it should be. Books that are based on research designed to predict behavior belong in the Social Science section. Books that... MORE
February 15, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan writes But Arnold's prediction and the happiness literature are actually compatible. I am not going to be trapped into talking about happiness research as if it makes behavioral predictions. Happiness research cannot make behavioral predictions at all. It consists... MORE
January 9, 2006
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Pete Boettke wants to see Economics with Attitude. I have often asked job candidates what the wildest hypothesis related to their research in economics and political economy that they want to pursue would be. Here are some of my ideas... MORE
September 20, 2005
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
R.J. Rummel's critique of a Cato study set off a big bloggers' debate about the value of think tanks. The following passage in Rummel's critique got my attention: This correlation is meaningful for the kind of regression analysis Gartzke did,... MORE
August 14, 2005
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Simon Baron-Cohen said, A systemizer is somebody whose style of thinking is predominantly in terms of understanding things according to rules or laws. You can think of lots of different kinds of systems: mathematical systems (algebra, computer programs), or mechanical... MORE
August 1, 2005
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
Not only do I disagree with Arnold's views on the self-interest and rationality assumptions; it also looks like Arnold disagrees with Arnold! In the past, Arnold has expressed a lot of sympathy for my view that systematically mistaken economic beliefs... MORE
July 31, 2005
Alternative Economics
Arnold Kling
Michael Blowhard summarizes two books attacking mainstream economics. For most of the "Changing Face" crowd, the field needs some correction, but nothing fundamental. One mathematical-modeling whiz says straight-out that there's nothing wrong with mathematical modeling that better mathematical modeling can't... MORE
June 17, 2005
Economics of Health Care
Arnold Kling
Co-blogger Bryan and I have been arguing over two issues, one substantive and one methodological Substantive issue: I say that health care probably is effective. He says that there is no evidence that it is effective on average. Incidentally, Paul... MORE
June 2, 2005
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan says, a fair number of papers have a lot of data points. So rejecting the null hypothesis of no effect is pretty easy. Moreover, it is fairly common in both literatures to discuss the magnitude of the effect, not... MORE
June 1, 2005
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Bryan's post on the statistical findings about parenting and health care reminds me of what we at MIT used to call "Chicago econometrics." A fundamental fallacy in classical statistics is to say, "Therefore, we accept the null hypothesis." The classical... MORE
April 16, 2005
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
One of the many paradoxes of behaviorism is that the only way you can tell that Arnold Kling and I disagree about it is from our words. Observe our behavior for a hundred years; you'll never figure out where we... MORE
April 14, 2005
Economic Methods
Bryan Caplan
One reaction to my recent piece in Econ Journal Watch is "economics isn't about what people say or believe; it's about what people DO." The easy response is: Not anymore, it isn't! Survey research has exploded in economics. So has... MORE
March 3, 2005
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I recently came across the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which seems like a fascinating data set. I would like to do some basic cross-tabs of some of the data. However, I am not a SAS jockey. Moreover, some of the... MORE
March 2, 2005
Economic Education
Arnold Kling
In a wide-ranging essay, I question the dominance of math in advanced economics. The raising of the mathematical bar in graduate schools over the past several decades has driven many intelligent men and women (perhaps women especially) to pursue other... MORE
January 4, 2005
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
John Brockman asked dozens of scientists and other intellectuals to state a proposition you believe is true, even though you cannot prove it. Not many of the answers deal with economics, and those that do strike me as hostile without... MORE
September 10, 2004
Austrian Economics
Arnold Kling
Since the name of Paul Samuelson came up recently, I thought I would toss out a few random impressions of him. I only had Samuelson for one course, which I believe was in the Spring of 1977. It was part... MORE
August 14, 2004
Public Choice Theory
Michael Munger
by Michael Munger Guest Blogger Economist Ray Fair's very simple model on presidential elections has some interesting things to say about the upcoming election. Given the macro-economic and macro-political factors that have mattered in the past, George W. Bush should... MORE
February 11, 2004
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
I try to use the 2000 election in Florida and the question of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction to illustrate statistical concepts. In statistics, a parameter (not to be confused, as it is often is by laymen, with perimeter), is... MORE
December 31, 2003
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
A while back, we discussed whether math is necessary for economic education. Thomas Sowell gives his view. Introductory economics is too often taught as if the students in it were all potential economists who had to be introduced to the... MORE
December 16, 2003
Economic Methods
Arnold Kling
Brad DeLong points to an interesting post by Daniel Davies on the use of math in economics. Davies writes, If the history of economic thought teaches us anything, it teaches us that people who don't use the mathematics always, sooner... MORE
Return to top
|
SHARE
