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Statistical theory and methods

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May 8, 2013

Happy Hayek Day: Is it Investment? Is it Consumption?

Austrian Economics

Art Carden

F.A. Hayek would have been 114 years old today. To celebrate, here's a set of videos in which Hayek is interviewed by, among others, Axel Leijonhufvud (!), Armen Alchian (!!), and James Buchanan (!!!). Or, if you prefer the written... MORE

February 11, 2013

Capacity Utilization & Economic Growth: A Broken Relationship

Macroeconomics

Garett Jones

The new Econ Journal Watch piece by David Cushman checks this claim that Krugman made in March 2009:...it is right to expect high growth in future if the economy is depressed now. I'm not writing about that quote, since Cushman and... MORE

January 31, 2013

Wasteful Hiring: When Does It Cut Profits?

Statistical theory and methods

Garett Jones

The boss hires his worthless unemployed nephew for a summer job. Does that raise GDP or lower it? To keep things simple think of this as ex nihilo hiring: if not for this hire, the person wouldn't have been hired... MORE

January 27, 2013

Learning About the Economy: Statistics or Uncle-Asking?

Public Choice Theory

Garett Jones

Alan Blinder left his position as a Princeton economist to serve as vice chairman of the Fed. After he went back to academia he wrote a great short book that I see as a crypto-memoir, Central Banking in Theory and... MORE

October 7, 2012

Overdetermination vs. Randomness

Statistical theory and methods

David Henderson

Here are the opening sentences from an article by San Jose Mercury News sports reporter Tim Kawakami: All the melodramatic twists, tweaks and breaks should've made the Giants virtually unbeatable on Saturday. They had their ace, Matt Cain, on the... MORE

October 6, 2012

BLS Data

Political Economy

Luigi Zingales

The Bureau of Labor Statistics had not finished releasing the surprisingly good September data that a number of commentators started raising doubts about the truthfulness of the data. There is no doubt that the data were a boost to President... MORE

July 2, 2012

It Lost 244% of Its Value? Impossible

Statistical theory and methods

David Henderson

In an otherwise good article in today's Wall Street Journal, "Just Say Nein to Eurobonds," Matthew Will writes: From 1980 to the launch of the euro in January 1999, the Italian lira and Portuguese escudo lost 108% and 244% of... MORE

May 28, 2012

Great Moments in Numeracy: LBJ's Odds of Becoming President

Statistical theory and methods

David Henderson

When it became clear to Johnson that he could not reach the top of the ticket, he began to consider the second spot. He had his staff look up how many presidents in the previous hundred years had died in... MORE

December 15, 2011

How Food Stamps Increase Measured Poverty

Income Distribution

David Henderson

The leading story in the Monterey County Herald this morning is titled, "Nearly half in U.S. near poverty or low-income." It is Hope Yen's Associated Press item, and the leading two paragraphs are: Squeezed by rising living costs, a record... MORE

March 28, 2011

NCAA Outcomes: Margins and Randomness

Statistical theory and methods

David Henderson

The outcomes so far in the NCAA men's basketball games have surprised most people. The biggest surprise is Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) beating the mighty Kansas, President Obama's choice to win the whole thing. VCU's wins are surprising. But it,... MORE

December 10, 2008

An AP Stats Lecture

Statistical theory and methods

Arnold Kling

Because yesterday's hearing ran so late, I missed my AP stats class. Here is the way I would explain what went on to my students.... MORE

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