<rss version="2.0">

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<title>EconLog</title>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/</link>

<description></description>

<copyright>Copyright 2010</copyright>

<lastBuildDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:20:45 -0500</lastBuildDate>

<generator>http://www.movabletype.org/?v=4.21-en</generator>

<docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs>



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<title>Mish Bet, by Bryan Caplan</title>

<description><![CDATA[I'm back from the Kansas City <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/kauffman_econom.html">econobloggers' conference</a>.&nbsp; My personal highlight: I managed to extract a bet from <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/">Mike Shedlock</a>, a.k.a. Mish.&nbsp; On the fiscal crisis panel, Mish predicted high unemployment for the next ten years.&nbsp; This provoked a lot of heat but little light.&nbsp; Over dinner, though, Mish and I hammered out the following bet:<br /><br /><i>If the official initially reported U.S. monthly unemployment rate falls below 8.0% for any month between now and June, 2015, I win $100.&nbsp; Otherwise, Mish wins $100.</i>&nbsp; <br /><br />Mish based his pessimism on the implausibility of rapid job growth in construction and other key sectors.&nbsp; I saw this as misleading <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/disagreement-is-nearfar-bias.html">"near" reasoning</a> - and took the "far" road instead.&nbsp; My position:&nbsp; During the last big recession in the Eighties, the unemployment rate fell about 1 percentage-point per year after the peak.&nbsp; So while full recovery is indeed about five years away, it would be very surprising if unemployment stayed at 8% or more for three years, much less five.&nbsp; Where will the new jobs appear?&nbsp; If I knew that, I'd probably be investing in them instead of blogging about my bets!<br /><br />]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/mish_bet.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/mish_bet.html</guid>

<category>Labor Market</category>

<pubDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 11:20:45 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>Walter Block on Capitalism, by David Henderson</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p>Walter <a href="http://www.lewrockwell.com/block/block153.html">writes</a>:</p>

<blockquote>I readily admit that "capitalism" has a bad press, and its historical use is none too salutary either. But, the enemies of libertarianism are always trying to take words away from us. They have already long ago stolen "liberal." We must now call ourselves "classical liberals" if we want to use that appellation at all. Some have recently had the audacity to try to take away the word "libertarian."</blockquote>
He goes on:

<blockquote>One final point. If we libertarians "refuse to use the word 'capitalism' to describe what we favor," what, then, can we make of the phrase "laissez faire capitalism"? Based on the interpretation of the Libertarians Against Capitalism, this phrase would have to be considered a logical contradiction, like "square circle." For, in their view, "capitalism" is a synonym for "crony capitalism."</blockquote>
Me:  What Walter said.]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/walter_block_on.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/walter_block_on.html</guid>

<category>Economic Philosophy</category>

<pubDate>Sat, 20 Mar 2010 11:25:42 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>David Brooks Provokes, by Arnold Kling</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p><a href = "http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/19/opinion/19brooks.html">with this:</a><br />
<blockquote><br />
The free-market revolution didn't create the pluralistic decentralized economy. It created a centralized financial monoculture, which requires a gigantic government to audit its activities.<br />
</blockquote><br />
Yesterday, during my talk at Campbell University, I also used the term monoculture to describe our financial elite.  However, I included the New York Fed, Treasury, and Ben Bernanke in this monoculture.   They all talk to one another, vet one another, and agree on way too much.  What you can take away from books like <i>The Greatest Trade Ever</i> and <i>The Big Short</i> (the latter I have not read) is just how different were the personalities of those who connected the dots in the financial system from the personalities of those in the monoculture.  I guarantee you that the hedge fund managers who bet against subprime mortgage securities would have been even less likely to be trusted by Tim Geithner or Henry Paulson than by bank CEO's.  </p>

<p>I describe elite finance, including both regulators and big bankers, as like an exclusive country club. The club members cannot conceive of anyone outside of the club as having any valuable knowledge or important function .  They are sure that saving their club is the same thing as saving the U.S. economy.</p>

<p>The rest of Brooks' essay is even more provoking.  He praises British writer Philip Blond, who favors "radical transformative conservativism."   Gag.  Blond's solution for overly concentrated power is this:<br />
<blockquote><br />
reduce the power of senior government officials and widen the discretion of front-line civil servants, the people actually working in neighborhoods. He would decentralize power, giving more budget authority to the smallest units of government. He would funnel more services through charities. He would increase investments in infrastructure, so that more places could be vibrant economic hubs. He would rebuild the "village college" so that universities would be more intertwined with the towns around them.<br />
</blockquote><br />
I wish Brooks would read my <a href = "http://www.amazon.com/Unchecked-Unbalanced-Discrepancy-Knowledge-Financial/dp/144220124X/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257531912&sr=1-4">other book</a>, which offers a more libertarian perspective on the problem of dispersed knowledge and concentrated power.  Or maybe he should just read <i>Snow Crash</i>, to which I made some references during my talk that were appreciated by at least a few people in the audience.</p>

<p>Brooks really likes the elite.  He is disturbed by people who resent the elite.  I also like the elite (that is, I would enjoy sitting down to dinner with a Larry Summers or a Barack Obama).  But I am disturbed by what the elite believes.  </p>

<p>For Brooks, the elite is relatively sane and the Tea Partiers are beserk.  I think it's the reverse.  Again, read my book.  I believe that the essential point to understand about where we are today is that John Kenneth Galbraith's <i>New Industrial State</i> gets something exactly right and something else spectacularly wrong.  </p>

<p>What Galbraith gets right is that large organizations must use bureaucratic planning. Hence, giving more power to "front-line civil servants" would be a disaster.  They would be even less accountable than high-level planners for the success or failure of their work.  Entrepreneurs need to be in their own businesses, with their own well-being on the line.  You don't want to encourage entrepreneurial behavior among people who are writing checks using other people's money.</p>

<p>What Galbraith got wrong was his view that the economy had no use for entrepreneurs at all, and that it would forever be dominated by the likes of Union Carbide, U.S. Steel, International Nickel, and Johns-Manville (members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1959, and now either deceased, merged out of existence, or relatively insignificant today).  Galbraith wrote when the industrial economy was at its peak, or shortly afterward.  The information economy works quite differently.  </p>

<p>In this information age, the Progressives may be as threatened with irrelevancy as the industrial labor unions that they romanticize about.  I think even most progressives recognize that it would be crazy to put a central control point or regulator in charge of all Internet content.  Well, the economy as a whole shares the same complexity and dynamism as the Internet--indeed, the economy is in some sense merging with the Internet.  So a highly-regulated economy is just not where trends are suggesting we should go.</p>

<p>At a point in history where the trend has been toward the diffusion of information, already the concentration of political power is creating anomalies, crashes, and mismanagement.  Yet for now, the elite responds to this historical trend favoring diffusion of power by trying to grab more and more power for monopoly government in general and for Washington in particular.  </p>

<p>David Brooks represents the elitist view, which is that the threat to social order comes from the libertarian streak in American society.  Instead, the elites these days should be quoting Pogo:  "we have met the enemy and he is us."</p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/david_brooks_pr.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/david_brooks_pr.html</guid>

<category>Finance: stocks, options, etc.</category>

<pubDate>Fri, 19 Mar 2010 18:45:00 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>The Substantive Precedent in the Health Care Bill, by Arnold Kling</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p>The controversy of the moment is the procedural precedent in the health care bill.  No comment on that.</p>

<p>What troubles me is the substantive precedent of using future cuts in Medicare benefits as a funding source.  This is really weird, if you think about it.  </p>

<p>Imagine that your crazy uncle Fred had bought a dozen cars on credit.  As a result, he faces car payments far in excess of what he can afford.  He comes to you and says he has a plan that in a couple of years will reduce his car payments by a few thousand dollars.  "Now I have the money for a down payment on a boat!" he exclaims, as he runs off to the boat dealer.</p>

<p>The equivalent is for Congress to treat future cuts in Medicare as if they were a newfound source of wealth to be tapped.  Once they adopt this precedent, they can increase spending on whatever they want, in unlimited amounts, while claiming deficit neutrality.  Future Medicare spending is so high that you can always come up with cuts, as long as they <i>deferred</i>.  </p>

<p><a href = "http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=524">CBO's Doug Elmendorf</a> discusses the use of promised future cuts in budget scoring, and it is evident that he is queasy about it.  I think it sets a very dangerous precedent.  Even if health care reform passes, I hope that Congress does something to close this loophole in its budget scoring procedures.  If I were the Republicans, I would introduce a bill that bans the use of promised future cuts as a financing mechanism.</p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/the_substantive.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/the_substantive.html</guid>

<category>Fiscal Policy</category>

<pubDate>Fri, 19 Mar 2010 17:44:05 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>Health Insurance: What Krugman Didn&apos;t Say, by David Henderson</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Stop Us Before We Cheat Again</strong></p>

<p>In his <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/19/opinion/19krugman.html?th&emc=th">pitch</a> for the Obama health care restructuring, Paul Krugman quotes a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62G2DO20100317">Reuters story</a> about a young man who was denied benefits for a pre-existing condition even though he didn't have such a condition when he got his health insurance.  A check of the article shows that Krugman referenced it accurately.  The young man sued and got a $10 million settlement.  It's hard to read that story and not believe that the company, Assurant Health, cheated him.  If so (and the only reason I'm hedging is that my only source on this is Reuters), then the verdict was just.</p>

<p>Krugman uses this case to argue for the Obama bill.  What's the connection?  Well, if insurance companies couldn't exclude people for pre-existing conditions, then such cases would no longer occur.  </p>

<p>But here's what he doesn't tell you.  First, in that same Reuters story, someone else agrees with Krugman, namely, Don Hamm.  Who's he?  None other than the president and CEO of the self-same Assurant Health.  Here are the last two paragraphs of the Reuters story:</p>

<blockquote>During his appearance on June 16 before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Hamm, the CEO and President of Assurant, urged Congress to pass the new health care legislation, in part, to prevent such practices.

<p>"We can achieve the goal we share -- providing health care coverage for all Americans," Hamm said. "If a system can be created where coverage is available to everyone and all Americans are required to participate, the process we are addressing today, rescission, becomes unnecessary."</blockquote><br />
What about another alternative:  allowing more competition.  In the 1970s, when the Interstate Commerce Commission limited the number of companies in the business of moving people's household goods, one nightmare Americans had was of having some of their valuables destroyed.  Then, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the ICC deregulated and we got more competition, lower prices, and more accountability from moving companies.  Why not try the same thing with insurance: letting people buy health insurance across state lines so that they can choose states with relatively tough enforcement of laws against insurance companies that cheat their customers.</p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/health_insuranc_8.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/health_insuranc_8.html</guid>

<category>Economics of Health Care</category>

<pubDate>Fri, 19 Mar 2010 13:26:40 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>My Top Books, by David Henderson</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/03/books-which-have-influenced-me-most.html">Tyler Cowen</a> led the way by listing the ten books that influenced his worldview most strongly.   Then co-bloggers <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/influential_boo.html">Arnold</a> and <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/my_book_list.html">Bryan</a> followed. Here are my seventeen, not in order of importance, but in chronological order (the chronology being, of course, when I read them.)</p>

<p>1.  I can't remember the name.  I read it when I was home sick at about age 12.  It was a book on Lincoln that leads off each chapter with a quote from the book-length poem, <em>John Brown's Body</em>, by Stephen Vincent Benet.  That's when I became a Lincoln fan.  I'm no longer a fan of his politics, given what I've learned since, but I loved his persistence.  My favorite quote is this one and I took it to heart and made it part of who I've become:</p>

<p>"No-he ain't much on looks-or much on speed-<br />
A young dog can outrun him any time,<br />
Outlook him and outeat him and outleap him,<br />
But, Mister, that dog's hell on a cold scent<br />
And, once he gets his teeth in what he's after,<br />
He don't let go until he knows he's dead."</p>

<p>2.  <em>Pride and Prejudice</em>, by Jane Austen.  We covered it in high school, but I read it three times because I loved it so much.  I still have to be reminded of the lesson: don't make quick judgments but, instead, get more information when that is low cost.</p>

<p>3. <em>Yes, I Can</em>, by Sammy Davis, Jr.  I read this during the summer between high school and college.  The way he ran his career and the way he dealt with racial discrimination was inspiring. </p>

<p>4.  <em>Elmer Gantry</em>, by Sinclair Lewis.  My aunt, who was more evangelical than the minister she was married to, convinced me that I would burn in hell if I didn't become born again.  I kept trying to be born again and I kept failing at it.  When I read this book the same summer as #3 above, I relaxed.</p>

<p>5.  <em>The Fountainhead</em>, by Ayn Rand.  I read it in my third month of college.  If I hadn't done so, I'm not sure I'd be a libertarian, an economist, or an American.  It, and Ayn Rand generally, influenced a huge number of the choices I made, most very good, one very bad that is too personal to talk about.</p>

<p>6.  <em>To Kill a Mockingbird</em>, by Harper Lee.  I loved the way Atticus kept his principles while still dealing in an every day world that he didn't create.  This helped me work in jobs where Howard Roark would have had trouble.  I reread this book every decade.</p>

<p>7.  <em>The Virtue of Selfishness</em>, by Ayn Rand.  This book, more than any other, convinced me that you could actually think about many issues and often resolve them or at least narrow them down.  My favorite was her essay on racism as a crude form of collectivism.</p>

<p>8. <em>Capitalism and Freedom</em>, by Milton Friedman.  Besides learning a lot of economics and some history from this book, I also learned that one can be relatively radical and successful in the mainstream.  </p>

<p>9.  <em>The Road to Serfdom</em>, by Friedrich Hayek.  A friend gave this to me for my 18th birthday.  When I started to read it, I hated it.  I couldn't stand the fact that Hayek treated his intellectual foes with respect rather than attacking them.  He kept pulling his punches.  When I picked it up to read about 6 months later, I loved it.  Not only did I learn his explicit message, but also I learned a style of debate that I still practice: zeroing in on the issue and assuming good intentions of the "other side."</p>

<p>10.  <em>The Calculus of Consent</em>, by James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock.  I read this during the year I took off to study economics on my own.  My introduction to public choice.  I wrote separate fan letters (at age 20) to Buchanan and Tullock.  Both answered gracefully and with actual content.</p>

<p>11.  <em>The Theory of Price</em>, by George Stigler.  I read this during that same econ study year.  I loved the mix of theorizing and more-than-casual empiricism.  After Stilger died, I reread the whole book and realized just how much of what I thought I came up with to use in class, I had learned from Stigler.</p>

<p>12.  <em>University Economics</em>, by Armen Alchian and William R. Allen.  I TAed from this book my first year in graduate school at UCLA.  Every Sunday afternoon and evening, I would work my way through a chapter and through every single question at the back of each chapter.  I did so just in case some 18-year-old the next day in my TA section asked a question from the back of the chapter.  It never happened.  But I learned more from this book my first year at UCLA than from any other.</p>

<p>13. <em>A Guide to Rational Living</em>, by Albert Ellis.  I hit some bumps in my last year in the Ph.D. program at UCLA.  I got extreme writer's block and was getting nowhere on my dissertation.  I write about this in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Making-Great-Decisions-Business-Life/dp/0976854104/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0"><em>Making Great Decisions in Business and Life</em></a>, co-authored with Charley Hooper.  I went to see a therapist, Roger Callahan, who gave every one of his new patients a copy.  That one book has helped me deal with so many life situations.</p>

<p>14. <em>Lucky Jim</em>, by Kingsley Amis.  This fun book helps me not take academic bulls**t too seriously.  I reread it every decade.</p>

<p>15. <em>How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World</em>, by Harry Browne.  When I was visiting a friend in Australia in 1999, I found this book in his library and decided to reread it.  I had first read it the late 1970s.  I had the same kind of experience I'd had when rereading Stigler: I realized that I had used a whole lot of Browne's ideas in my life but had thought I had come up with them.</p>

<p>16. <em>The Autobiography of Malcolm X</em>, by Malcolm X and Alex Haley.  I loved the story of Malcolm X's struggle and how he turned away from a life of crime and became a very strong man.  </p>

<p>17.  <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ropes-Skip-Know-Organizational-Management/dp/0471817899/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1268930582&sr=1-3"><em>The Ropes to Skip and the Ropes to Know</em></a>, by Richard Ritti and G. Ray Funkhouser.  I learned more about how to survive and thrive in organizations from this book than from anything else in my life.  I read it when I started the job at the Council of Economic Advisers and it helped immensely.  Moreover, I could see how I had screwed up at the Cato Institute in 1979-80 by not having followed these lessons.</p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/my_top_books.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/my_top_books.html</guid>

<category>Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings</category>

<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 12:26:48 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>The Case for Competitive Government, by Arnold Kling</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p><a href = "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fcce2ba6-3204-11df-a8d1-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss">Tim Harford writes</a>,<br />
<blockquote><br />
What is missing is the political demand for tests of what really works. Too many policies on education, welfare and criminal justice are just so much homeopathy: cute-sounding stories about what works leaning more on faith than on evidence. Politicians and civil servants, faced with some fancy new idea, should get into the habit of asking for a proper randomised trial. And we, as citizens, should be equally demanding.<br />
</blockquote><br />
In fact, the political system is very ill-suited to trial and error learning.  That is what markets are for.  That is why I favor competitive government.</p>

<p>Thanks to <a href = "http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2010/03/links-for-2010-03-17-1.html">Mark Thoma</a> for the pointer.</p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/the_case_for_co_1.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/the_case_for_co_1.html</guid>

<category>Political Economy</category>

<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 08:50:46 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>Obamacare Market, by Bryan Caplan</title>

<description><![CDATA[Can anyone explain <a href="http://www.intrade.com/">what happened</a> in the Obamacare betting market over the past 24 hours?&nbsp; Why did it fall from near 70, close at 35.1, then rebound to 65.1?<br /><br /> ]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/obamacare_marke.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/obamacare_marke.html</guid>

<category>Economics of Health Care</category>

<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:21:18 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>My Book List, by Bryan Caplan</title>

<description><![CDATA[The fifteen books that influenced my thinking the most, in chronological order:<br /><br />1. Friedrich Nietzsche, <i>Thus Spoke Zarathustra</i>.&nbsp; While I ultimately didn't learn much of substance, this book got me very excited about about ideas.&nbsp; Nietzsche's vision of discovering the truth, whatever is may be, and proclaiming it, no matter how much it offends others, is still with me. <br /><br />2. Ayn Rand, <i>Atlas Shrugged</i>.&nbsp; An old libertarian adage says that "it usually begins with Ayn Rand," and in <a href="http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/autobio.htm">my case it's true</a>.<br /><br />3. Ayn Rand, <i>The Virtue of Selfishness</i>.&nbsp; While I ultimately decided that her central arguments were actually <a href="http://home.sprynet.com/%7Eowl1/rand.htm">incompatible with moral realism</a>, this book nevertheless sparked my obsession with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-ethics">meta-ethics</a>.<br /><br />4. Murray Rothbard, <i>Man, Economy, and State</i>.&nbsp; It's full of <a href="http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/whyaust.htm">gross logical errors and sophistry</a>, but still taught me at least half of what I know about econ - and 90% of what I know about how economists ought to write.<br /><br />5. Ludwig von Mises, <i>Human Action</i>.&nbsp; In terms of pure economics, it's just a poorly organized (but still beautifully written) version of Rothbard's <i>MES</i>.&nbsp; But Mises' <a href="http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/misbas.doc">implicit political economy</a> made a huge impression on me - and I eventually realized that it's a lot more empirically grounded than standard public choice.<br /><br />6. Murray Rothbard, <i>For a New Liberty</i>.&nbsp; This is the book that made me an anarcho-capitalist.&nbsp; It's got <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/05/econlog_book_cl_18.html">lots of problems</a>, but still amazes me.<br /><br />7. Paul Johnson, <i>Modern Times</i>.&nbsp; Some of my favorite academic historians don't take this book seriously, but its broad brush paints a true picture of the 20th century.&nbsp; <br /><br />8. Julian Simon, <i>The Ultimate Resource</i>.&nbsp; Simon's amazing empirics burned away my lingering Randian pessimism about the modern world - and <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/12/my_ideal_foil.html">converted me to natalism</a>.<br /><br />9. Richard Posner, <i>Economic Analysis of Law</i>.&nbsp; Reading this book convinced me to start taking neoclassical efficiency analysis seriously.&nbsp; It also rekindled my love of econ right before I had to choose between law school and an econ Ph.D.&nbsp; So thank you, Judge Posner, for helping me make the right choice!<br /><br />10. Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, <i>The Bell Curve</i>.&nbsp; From a young age, I thought that intelligence matters a lot.&nbsp; But several of my favorite K-12 teachers tricked me into abandoning my youthful insight.&nbsp; <i>TBC</i> gave me back my birthright - and persuaded me that econometrics was <i>not</i> a waste of time along the way.<br /><br />11. Steve Landsburg, <i>The Armchair Economist</i>.&nbsp; This slim volume taught me that economic puzzles are everywhere.&nbsp; If Posner rekindled my love of econ, Landsburg's delightful book poured an endless supply of gasoline on the fire.&nbsp; <br /><br />12. Donald Wittman, <i>The Myth of Democratic Failure</i>.&nbsp; This is the book that awoke me from my dogmatic public choice slumbers - and (negatively) inspired all of my work on voter irrationality.&nbsp; It's a gift.<br /><br />13. Geoffrey Brennan and Loren Lomasky, <i>Democracy and Decision</i>.&nbsp; This neglected work finally explained why, contrary to orthodox public choice, basic economics implies radical <i>differences </i>between consumer and voter behavior.<br /><br />14. Judith Harris, <i>The Nurture Assumption</i>.&nbsp; Harris sucked me into the exciting world of behavioral genetics - and <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/04/harris_the_post.html">got me thinking</a> about the implications for the meaning of life.<br /><br />15. Thomas Reid, <i>Essays on the Intellectual Powers of Man</i>.&nbsp; <a href="http://home.sprynet.com/%7Eowl1">Mike Huemer</a> sold me on the philosophy of common sense years before I actually read <i>EIPM</i>.&nbsp; But I was still shocked at how persuasively Hume's obscure contemporary solved all the main problems of philosophy.&nbsp; Or to be more precise, Reid developed a <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/07/the_common_sens.html">philosophical </a><i><a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/07/the_common_sens.html">technique</a> </i>for <i>dis</i>solving any philosophical problem whatever.<br /><br />]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/my_book_list.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/my_book_list.html</guid>

<category>Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings</category>

<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:20:59 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>The Spread of Szaszian Economics, by Bryan Caplan</title>

<description><![CDATA[I was thrilled to publish "<a href="http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/szaszrev.doc">The Economics of Szasz</a>" in <i>Rationality and Society</i>, and even more thrilled to win a <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/09/the_best_of_sza.html">Szasz Prize</a> as a result.&nbsp; But I can't say the paper had much influence on the economics profession.&nbsp; I'm very pleased, then, to see that behavioral economists like Laibson are giving a lot of love to Gene Heyman's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Addiction-Disorder-Gene-M-Heyman/dp/0674032985/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1268869561&amp;sr=1-1"><i>Addiction: A Disorder of Choice</i></a>.&nbsp; Here's the gist from <a href="http://www.aei.org/article/101789">Sally Satel's sympathetic review</a>:<br /><blockquote>If, as Heyman says, "drug-induced brain change is not sufficient
evidence that addiction is an involuntary disease state," then how are
we to distinguish between voluntary and involuntary behavior?<br /><br /> <p>Heyman's
answer is that "voluntary activities vary systematically as a function
of their consequences, where the consequences include benefits, costs,
and values."<br /></p></blockquote><p>In "The Economics of Szasz," I gave many examples of this point.&nbsp; Here are some of Heyman's, as filtered through Satel:<br /></p><blockquote><p>Take, for example, the case of addicted physicians and
pilots. When they are reported to their oversight boards they are
monitored closely for several long years; if they don't fly right, they
have a lot to lose (jobs, income, status). It is no coincidence that
their recovery rates are high. Via entities called drug courts, the
criminal justice system applies swift and certain sanctions to drug
offenders who fail drug tests--the threat of jail time if tests are
repeatedly failed is the stick--while the carrot is that charges are
expunged if the program is completed. Participants in drug courts tend
to fare significantly better than their counterparts who have been
adjudicated as usual. In so-called contingency management experiments,
subjects addicted to cocaine or heroin are rewarded with vouchers
redeemable for cash, household goods, or clothes. Those randomized to
the voucher arm routinely enjoy better results than those receiving
treatment as usual.</p></blockquote><p>The lesson:<br /></p><blockquote> <p>Contingencies are the key to voluntariness.
No amount of reinforcement or punishment can alter the course of an
entirely autonomous biological condition. Imagine bribing an
Alzheimer's patient to keep her dementia from worsening, or threatening
to impose a penalty on her if it did. <br /></p></blockquote><p>Thus Heyman reinvents my "<a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2005/03/howard_hughes_a.html">Gun to the Head Test</a>."&nbsp; Sweet.</p>My main quibble with Satel's review is that she's overly charitable to promoters of the view that addiction is a brain disease.<br /><blockquote>In fairness, the scientists who forged the brain disease concept had
good intentions. By placing addiction on equal footing with more
conventional medical disorders, they sought to create an image of the
addict as a hapless victim of his own wayward neurochemistry. They
hoped this would inspire companies and politicians to allocate more
funding for treatment. Also, by emphasizing dramatic scientific
advances, such as brain imaging techniques, and applying them to
addiction, they hoped researchers might reap more financial support for
their work. Finally, promoting the idea of addiction as a brain disease
would rehabilitate the addict's public image from that of a criminal
who deserves punishment into a sympathetic figure who deserves
treatment.<br /></blockquote>Frankly, I see nothing good about the intentions of the scientists who "forged the brain disease concept."&nbsp; While I think that addictive behavior should be legal, it's still irresponsible and emotionally abusive towards the people who care about you.&nbsp;&nbsp; The addiction-as-disease story shifts the blame from where it belongs - the self-destructive addict - to family, friends, co-workers, employers, tax-payers, and other victims.&nbsp; Calling bad behavior a "disease" may be merciful, but it's unjust.<br /><br />]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/the_spread_of_s.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/the_spread_of_s.html</guid>

<category>Behavioral Economics and Rationality</category>

<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 15:30:37 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>Influential Books, by Arnold Kling</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p>Recently, <a href = "http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/03/books-which-have-influenced-me-most.html">Tyler Cowen</a> listed the ten books that have influenced him the most.  I have a much harder time coming up with such a long list.  I am more inclined to list people (Tyler among them).  But here goes:</p>]]> <![CDATA[<p>1.  David Halberstam, <em>The Best and the Brightest</em>.  My take-away from that book might be described as "The Exclusive Country Club Theory."  He makes foreign policy in the 1950's and early 1960's in the United States sound as if it was the province of an exclusive country club of people with a certain temperament and background.  Wall Street lawyers, mostly. I have to say that I have carried this model with me for a long time.  To this day, I view the relationship among Treasury, the Fed, the New York Fed, and large financial institutions in Exclusive Country Club terms.  These people vet one another, agree with one another, and support one another.  They do not question whether their interests coincide with those of the rest of the country--they just assume that the country depends on their institutions and their class leadership.</p>

<p>2.  George Goodman, aka 'Adam Smith,' <em>The Money Game</em> and <em>Supermoney</em>.  He was the Michael Lewis of his time--a great storyteller who also understood the substance of finance.  I think his books still read well, although I could understand it if others find the stories themselves too dated.  These books sparked my interest in finance theory and in the temptation to both believe and refuse to believe in efficient markets.</p>

<p>3.  Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian, <em>Information Rules</em>.  Again, you may find that the examples seem old, but no better book has been written on the economic issues of the information-driven economy.  Among other things, this book convinced me that <a href = "http://www.google.com/search?q=kling+price+discrimination+explains">Price Discrimination Explains Everything</a>.</p>

<p>4.  Ray Kurzweil, <em>The Age of Spiritual Machines</em>.  At first, <a href = "http://arnoldkling.com/~arnoldsk/aimst3/aimst320.html">I did not buy it</a>.  However, I have mostly come around.  It is now possible to evaluate his predictions for 2009 (made around 1997).  He did score with this one (p. 190):<br />
<blockquote><br />
Computers routinely include wireless technology to plug into the ever-present worldwide network, providing reliable, instantly available, very-high-bandwidth communication.  Digital objects such as books, music albums, movies, and software are rapidly distributed as data files through the wireless network, and typically do not have a physical object associated with them.<br />
</blockquote><br />
However, for the most part, his predictions are far too aggressive.  He was about right on hardware capability, somewhat optimistic on software capability (he thought that functions like language translation would be pretty much mastered by now), clearly too optimistic on the emergence of applications (he predicted computer-controlled cars on main highways by now) and ludicrously optimistic about the speed at which education and health care will be transformed by technology.</p>

<p>5.  Amity Shlaes, <em>The Forgotten Man</em>.  Folks on the left scorn this book, and it is not without its flaws.  But ultimately, I think the left hates Shlaes not for what she gets wrong but what she gets right.  What she gets right pokes huge holes in the high school book narrative of the Depression (Herbert Hoover sat back and did nothing, Roosevelt saved the economy).  My takeaway from this book is the importance of the battle over historical narrative.  We see that today in the determination of the left to blame the financial crisis entirely on "free-market ideology," even though that narrative is not such a good fit for the facts.</p>

<p>6.  George Gilder, <em>Microcosm</em>.  This was his history of the microprocessor.  My guess is that it will not read well today, but at the time his emphasis on the relative unimportance of the materials in computers (he refers to silicon as "sand") stimulated me to focus on intangibles in the modern economy.</p>

<p>7.  Thomas Sowell, <i>The Vision of the Anointed</i>.  This book got me started thinking about the origins of the differences between the left and the right.  I do not think anyone has fully satisfactory answers, but it is a fascinating question.</p>

<p>8.  Amar Bhide, <i>The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses</i>.  He breaks down the business ecosystem into two dimensions--degree of capital intensity and degree of ambiguity, and he gets remarkable mileage out of the resulting matrix.</p>

<p>9.  Bill James, <i>The Baseball Abstact, 1987</i>.  Others can be equally analytical about baseball. What is striking about Bill James is how well he wrote--when he cared.  If only Amar Bhide wrote this well...</p>

<p>10.  <s>Ernest Graham</s>Kenneth Grahame, <i>The Wind in the Willows</i>.  The character of Toad is brilliantly drawn and offers great insights.</p>

<p>11.  Neal Stephenson, <i>The Diamond Age</i> and <i>Snow Crash</i>.  How I came to understand nanotechnology and competitive government, respectively.</p>]]></description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/influential_boo.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/influential_boo.html</guid>

<category>Books: Reviews and Suggested Readings</category>

<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 11:19:30 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>Oops.  My Mistake, by David Henderson</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p>Commenters on my <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/i_love_capitali.html">post</a> last night pointed out something I had not been aware of: the special treatment local governments give Bass Pro Shops to set up.  It turns out that the store I went to in Manteca last night is no exception.  A little snooping around the web turned up the <a href="http://www.ci.tracy.ca.us/uploads/fckeditor/File/city_council/agendas/2008/07/15/06.pdf">following</a>.  It does appear that the store in Manteca gets special tax treatment.  Now, a tax rebate is not the same as a subsidy--although it has very similar economic effects--but, still, it's dangerous for local government to have the power to say that some firms don't get a rebate and some do.  It essentially makes local government planners into central planners.  They already are, I know, but this makes it more so.</p>

<p>In response to one of the comments, I do mean by "capitalism" a system of free markets with respect for private property, contract, etc.  What I saw in Manteca was not capitalism, at least not the kind I advocate.</p>

<p>I'm aware of my friend Sheldon Richman's <a href="http://sheldonfreeassociation.blogspot.com/2010/01/libertarians-against-capitalism.html">attempt</a> to get us to replace the word "capitalism" with "free market."  Like <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/should_libertarians_oppose_capitalism.html">co-blogger Bryan</a>, though, I'm not sure that this is a battle worth joining.  </p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/oops_my_mistake.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/oops_my_mistake.html</guid>

<category>Central Planning vs. Local Knowledge</category>

<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 10:05:33 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>I Love Capitalism, Again, by David Henderson</title>

<description><![CDATA[<p>Driving home from skiing today--it was a gorgeous day in California, by the way--I saw a <a href="http://www.basspro.com/homepage.html?CMID=&cm_mmc=&cm_guid=&hvarAID=&hvarEID=&cm_ven=&cm_cat=&cm_pla=&cm_ite=">Bass Pro Shops</a> in a city called Manteca.  I had only seen it advertised on TV, but had never seen a real one.  On TV it looked so huge that I thought the real ones could not be that big.  Wrong.  It really <em>is</em> that big.  The place is a toy store for both adults and kids, especially for males.</p>

<p>I went in and went straight for the motorboats.  When I was a kid, we had so little money that I learned just to appreciate looking at things I couldn't ever imagine being able to buy.  I remember during the long winter months in Canada going to the same page in our Eaton's catalogue and looking at and dreaming about motorboats.  Today, I can easily afford to buy a boat but I'm not planning to and I still get that same enjoyment out of just looking at the boat and run my hand the whole length of it.  Indeed, I taught myself so well when I was a kid that I can go through a store and see lots of things I love, leave empty-handed, and still have a good time.</p>

<p>But the deals at Bass were so good that I actually did buy three things.  I love collecting caps but, with rare exceptions, won't buy them unless I can get them for well under $10.00.   Their own Bass Pro Shops cap was priced at only $5.99: I'm sure it's because of the free advertising they get when people wear their hats.  The next thing that I put in my cart was a beautiful head lamp for only $20.  Then I found a part of shorts made of nylon and tried them on: they fit perfectly.  Also, one of my big frustrations with shorts in the last 10 years or so is how long they make them:  I don't like shorts that come close to my knees.  These were actually <em>shorts</em>.  Price?  $15.00 (actually, $14.99, but I round.)</p>

<p>I love capitalism.</p>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/i_love_capitali.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/i_love_capitali.html</guid>

<category>Growth: Consequences</category>

<pubDate>Tue, 16 Mar 2010 23:14:08 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>&quot;Everyone&quot; Does Not Equal &quot;Most Everyone&quot;, by Bryan Caplan</title>

<description><![CDATA[Robin <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/efficiency-disclaimers.html">replies</a> to my recent post on <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/hansons_fallacy.html">Hanson's Fallacy</a>:<br /><blockquote>Few deals can guarantee to get <em>everyone</em> more of what they
want, but by encouraging and enabling more better wider deals, the use
of efficiency analysis sure seems to me to <em>tend</em> to get most everyone more of what they want.&nbsp; Isn't that good enough?<br /></blockquote>Here's the reply I posted in his comments:<br /><blockquote>It would have been sufficient if you said: "When I said 'everyone,' I meant 'most everyone.'"&nbsp; I'm not jumping on you for lack of disclaimers, but for stubborn overstatement.<br /></blockquote> ]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/everyone_does_n.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/everyone_does_n.html</guid>

<category>Cost-benefit Analysis</category>

<pubDate>Tue, 16 Mar 2010 14:24:35 -0500</pubDate>

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<title>Haidt Responds, by Bryan Caplan</title>

<description><![CDATA[Don't miss Jon Haidt's response to <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/do_liberals_use.html">my questions</a>.&nbsp; It's in the comments, but I reproduce it here in its entirety.<br /><br /> <hr><br /><div class="blog">
                                    <div class="blogcommenter">
            <p>Dear Bryan, and other commentators:</p>

<p>The question you ask is one of the most important ones we've been
trying to answer for the last 2 years. The original theory was not
developed to understand politics; it was to understand cross cultural
variation, while drawing on evolutionary psychology to help pick the
best candidates for being true foundations upon which cultures can
construct many contradictory moralities. That's how we came up with the
first 5. But once we applied it to politics, it quickly became clear
that we were missing something about liberty/autonomy, and that
fairness was much more complex than concerns about justice and equality
(which liberals score higher on). As one of your readers commented, we
do poorly by libertarians. But we're about to fix that. If anyone wants
to see the data as it grows, on the various kinds of liberty and
various kinds of fairness, please go to www.yourmorals.org and take the
"MFQ-Part B"</p>

<p>NOw, as to whether liberals have the ingroup, authority, and purity
foundations at all: As one of your readers said, it's a matter of
degree. So I've always thought that they have them, but don't build
nearly as much on them. But the story is different for each one:</p>

<p>INGROUP: yes, liberals can do ingroup, but mostly just contra
conservatives and racists. And they don't do it terribly well. The
Democratic Whip has a much harder job than the republican Whip. Social
conservatives take to it so readily. Liberals and libertarians can do
it, but not as readily or as reliably. Liberals in particular are
universalists; they are morally opposed to tribalism, although they can
kinda do liberal tribalism. So yes, liberals would consider voting for
a republican as a kind of treason. </p>

<p>AUTHORITY: This is the one that I think really is different. Many
liberals tell me that we have authorities, but our authorities have to
earn our respect, like a scientific authority. But i see this as
something of a pun. The ethology of authority is related to dominance
and submission, most primates do it, but conservative primates do it
much more readily than liberal primates, and on the far left
anti-authoritarianism is such a strong value. Dancing on MLK's grave is
extreme sacrlilege (see purity), it is not defying an order, defying
the teacher, father, etc. I think this foundation might be one that
some liberals lack completely, others have weakly. </p>

<p>PURITY: I have long thought that liberal purity exists and is best
found in liberal attitudes about the environment. I have a short blog
post titled 'in search of liberal purity' here:<br />
http://www.yourmorals.org/blog/2010/02/in-search-of-liberal-purity/</p>

<p>So yes, your question about littering is a very good one, i might
test it out if you give me permission. To see the current items that we
are testing, please go to www.yourmorals.org and take the MFQ-C, which
has items we are using to explore liberal purity. </p>

<p>Bottom line: Moral Foundations Theory, in its first draft, has done
a surprisingly good job of capturing the culture war, particularly the
old one with the religious right. But it is incomplete, it is
constantly being improved, and questions and criticisms such as yours
are one of the most important ways that we improve it. We're likely to
come out with a revision in late 2010, based in part on what we find on
the MFQ-B and C. </p>

<p>Thanks for posing these questions, and inviting me to respond.</p>

<p>jon</p></div></div>]]> </description>

<link>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/haidt_responds.html</link>

<guid>http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2010/03/haidt_responds.html</guid>

<category>Economic Philosophy</category>

<pubDate>Tue, 16 Mar 2010 13:27:43 -0500</pubDate>

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